EURGBP TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 0.8316/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27 
• PRICE: 0.8290 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 31
• SUP 1: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support 
• SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

EURGBP resistance at 0.8317, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced - but has so far failed to trigger a sharper move higher. A clear breach of the EMA would undermine the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.

• RES 4: 107.365 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20  
• RES 2: 107.109 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.055 High Dec 30      
• PRICE: 106.985 @ Close Dec 30   
• SUP 1: 106.900 Low Dec 30            
• SUP 2: 106.854 1.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing   
• SUP 3: 106.810 1.500 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.766 1.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing 

The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. Last Friday’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the bear leg and opens 106.854, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 107.109, the 20-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.

• RES 4: 1.2874 High Nov 12  
• RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and key resistance    
• RES 2: 1.2727 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2616 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.2549 @ 06:22 GMT Dec 31
• SUP 1: 1.2476 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
• SUP 3. 1.2400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend   

The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Dec 20. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next, the May 9 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high.