EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 159.95 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 158.40 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.28 @ 07:17 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is in consolidation mode and continues to trade at its recent lows. Key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low, remains exposed. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 158.40, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 159.95, the 50-day EMA.
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NORWAY: Goods Consumption Should Contribute Positively To Q4 GDP
Norwegian SA retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.1% in December, while November’s reading was revised up a tenth to 0.4%. On a 3m/3m basis, sales grew 0.5% for the second consecutive month, and rose 0.7% Y/Y (vs 0.2% prior). Similar dynamics were observed in retail sales excluding motor vehicles and fuel (1.0% 3m/3m vs 1.3% prior; 3.0% Y/Y vs 0.9% prior).
- Statistics Norway notes that pharmacies, grocery stores and stores selling beverages saw lower retail sales in December, but this was offset by increases in online shopping (for Christmas in particular).
- Overall, retail trade looks to have outperformed the -0.3% Q/Q expectation from contacts in the Q4 Regional Network Survey.
- The household goods consumption index – which feeds into the quarterly GDP calculation – fell 1.1% M/M in December but rose 1.0% on a 3m/3m basis (vs 0.5% prior).
BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Holds For Now
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.78 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.07 @ Close Jan 28
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.78, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from last Wednesday’s high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
