EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
Feb-27 20:00
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 159.95 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 158.40 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.21 @ 16:23 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 155.76/155.61 Low Feb 27 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is in consolidation mode and continues to trade at its recent lows. Key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low, remains exposed. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 158.40, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 159.95, the 50-day EMA.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Tech Stock Lead Strong Session Gains
Jan-28 19:52
- US Stock markets continue to unwind yesterday's sell-off tied to China's AI startup DeepSeek. New competition for US AI developers rattled global markets Monday, tech-heavy Nasdaq -3.65% as leading chip maker stocks tumbled as much as 25%. Currently, the DJIA trades up 123.63 points (0.28%) at 44836.52, S&P E-Minis up 54.5 points (0.9%) at 6101.5, Nasdaq up 409.7 points (2.1%) at 19753.18.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to outperform in late trade, semiconductors outperforming software & hardware makers: Crowdstrike +8.98%, Nvidia +7.04% after falling over 18% on Monday, Palantir +5.82% and Salesforce +4.70%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares helped support the Communication Services sector: Meta +2.97%, Live Nation +1.71% and Alphabet +1.63%.
- On the flipside, Utilities and Energy sectors underperformed in the first half, electricity providers and oil companies weaker with NextEra Energy -4.7%, Entergy -3.69%, Edison International -3.26%, Valero -2.59% while Diamondback Energy slipped -2.0%.
- Earnings update after the close: NextEra Energy, Starbucks, Qorvo and Stryker Corp. Followed by a heavy Wednesday schedule: Super Micro Computer, Corning, Danaher, Norfolk Southern, Flex, Brinker International, Lennox Int, Hess Corp, MSCI Inc, General Dynamics, Otis Worldwide, Stifel Financial, T-Mobile US, Nasdaq, IBM, Waste Management, Tesla, ServiceNow, Lam Research Corp, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Ameriprise Financial, Wolfspeed, Western Digital, United Rentals, Teradyne, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Raymond James Financial, Whirlpool Corp and Dow Inc.
COMMODITIES: WTI Rebounds, Gold Bull Phase Remains Intact
Jan-28 19:49
- WTI has jumped back into gains on the day, likely supported by comments from the White House Press Secretary that the Feb 1 deadline for applying tariffs on Mexico and Canada still stands.
- WTI Mar 25 is up by 1.0% at $73.9/bbl.
- Despite today’s gains, WTI futures remain below the 20-day EMA at $74.13, which was breached yesterday, turning attention to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.22.
- On the upside, a continuation higher would focus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub is extending its decline this week to the lowest levels since Jan 8, driven by a warm weather forecast for the southern US, which eases demand pressures after the cold weather last week.
- US Natgas Feb 25 is down by 7.0% at $3.44/mmbtu.
- Elsewhere, spot gold has risen by 0.9% to $2,764/oz, unwinding most of yesterday’s losses.
- The gain comes despite the rebound in the dollar today, as the yellow metal is buoyed by haven demand amid ongoing tariffs concerns.
- The move brings gold back toward its recent highs, with a bull cycle still in play.
- Sights are on $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend, opening the $2,800 handle.
CANADA: Macro Since The Last BoC: Growth - Reasonable
Jan-28 19:44
- The limited growth-related releases of note saw real GDP growth surprise higher than expected in October at 0.3% M/M (cons/advance 0.2) after an upward revised 0.2% (initial 0.1) in September, but with a disappointing -0.1% M/M advance estimate for November (full due two days after the meeting on Friday).
- Since then, nominal retail sales saw a particularly strong 1.6% M/M jump in the December advance, likely in response to the temporary GST/HST holiday that started in mid-Dec but was announced Nov 21 with some discretionary spending likely held back.
- It leaves conservative monthly GDP estimates on track for circa 2% annualized growth in Q4 (chart below shows a crude entry of 0.0% M/M for Dec), with a chance of a fair bit higher, with the BoC forecasting 2.0% for Q4 back in October.
- With the BoC previously forecasting potential growth at 2.4% in 2024 and 1.9% over 2025-26, it’s possible that excess supply stopped building and could have been trimmed a touch.
- The Bank will however be attempting to calculate and look through the extent to which recent strength has come from the temporary boost from the tax holiday.
- On the outlook more generally, firms in the Business Outlook Survey for Q4 reported improvements in sales expectations after a period of weak demand: “This expectation is largely driven by recent interest rate reductions and the anticipation of further cuts ahead” with the latter on note in current deliberations.
