USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 3: 164.55 High Jan 7   
• RES 2: 163.43 High Jan 9 
• RES 1: 162.55 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 161.03 @ 20:50 GMT Jan 13 
• SUP 1: 160.04 Low Jan 13    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective, however the cross did once again, trade lower Monday, and this has resulted in a breach of initial support at 160.91, the Jan 2 low. The next support to watch is 159.51, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Initial resistance is at 162.55, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.615/851 - High Dec 31 / High Dec 11 
• PRICE: 95.320 @ 20:29 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  
• SUP 2: 95.224 - 1.000 proj of the Dec 11 - 23 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 94.537 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851, and has traded through the Dec low. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.

• Treasuries held to a narrow session range Monday amid decent volumes (TYH5 over 1.5M contracts despite Japan out on extended holiday) ahead of this week's PPI and CPI inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
• Late session risk-on saw Tsys soften (TYH5 107-08, -4.5) while stocks climbed off lower lvls, SPX Eminis near steady, DJIA outperforming, Nasdaq weaker but well off lows, apparently reacting to chatter that an Israeli ceasefire-hostage deal may be reached by tomorrow.
• NY Fed consumer inflation expectations saw a mixed month for December, with the 1Y holding steady at 3.0%, the 3Y jumping 40bps to 3.0% and the 5Y falling 20bps to 2.7%. The 3Y measure is its highest since Nov 2023 and came amidst its highest uncertainty since May.
• Wednesday’s US CPI report headlines the weekly calendar, with Bloomberg consensus currently looking for a 0.2% M/M print for core CPI in what’s a close call with a 0.3% M/M. Indeed, our initial review of 13 unrounded analyst estimates sees these generally more detailed projections centered around 0.25% M/M for core CPI in December.