AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6293 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact for now. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of the Feb 3 low would resume the medium-term downtrend.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Estox 50: +0.16%, Dax: +0.11%, CAC: -0.06%, FTSE +0.17%, SMI +0.32%.
BONDS: Bund is testing Yesterday's low
- The German Bund is testing 133.21, this was Yesterday's low, but not seen any standout size flows and the push lower.
- The contract printed a 132.95 low post NFP, the next downside hurdle to watch, ahead of the 132.72 support.
- US TYH5 look to test 109.01, the US NFP low, and looking at the 10yr Yield, 4.55% would be situated 108.26+ today, although the better Yield resistance will be seen at 4.60%.
STIR: ~65bp Of BoE Cuts Through Year-End Still Priced, Mann Interview Eyed
GBP STIRs little changed from settlement, with comments from BoE hawk-turned-dove Mann and Trump’s latest tariff moves/rhetoric still being digested.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~64bp of cuts through year-end, which encompasses fairly low odds of a follow up cut in March (~6bp) and 26.5bp of easing through May.
- SONIA futures +2.0 to -1.5, twist steepening.
- BoE’s Mann told the told the FT that she believed that “companies will struggle to raise prices this year as consumers are hit by job losses and spending softens.”
- However, the article noted that her vote for a 50bp cut shows a “desire for a one-off step-change rather than a longer-term succession of ongoing rate reductions.”
- This confirms that Mann may not be a long-standing dove (as we suspected - and as hinted by her description in the Minutes that rates need to remain restrictive). We still don’t know her view on the terminal rate and expect her to vote for cuts for at least another 2 meetings.
- Mann's follow up speech (08:45GMT) is likely to shed further light on her views.
- Elsewhere, BoE Governor Bailey will also speak (12:15GMT), on the topic of “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?”
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.393 | -6.1 |
May-25 | 4.188 | -26.6 |
Jun-25 | 4.102 | -35.2 |
Aug-25 | 3.954 | -50.0 |
Sep-25 | 3.911 | -54.3 |
Nov-25 | 3.840 | -61.4 |
Dec-25 | 3.814 | -64.0 |
