BUNDS: /SWAPS: Commerzbank Reiterate Shorts In Long End ASWs

• Treasury futures holding near recent session lows, little reaction to better than expected new home sales for December. Still bid, futures have scaled back overnight risk-off support on weaker stocks tied to China's DeepSeek AI startup.
• Treasury Mar'25 10Y futures currently +16 at 108-31 vs. 109-12 high - just below initial technical resistance of 109-12.5 (50-day EMA).
• Cross asset comparison, stocks are weaker but well off lows (SPX Eminis -103.0 at 6029.50), Gold weaker (-27.33 at 2743.23), US$ index off lows (BBDXY +.21 at 1295.37), volatility index gaining (VIX +3.61 at 18.46).
• Focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy annc, as well as heavy corporate earning's docket this week. 

FX Exchange traded option, looking for further Yen Strength.

• JPYUSD (7th Mar) 67.5c, bought for 0.23 in 1.3k.

The underlying is at 65.175, spot is slightly lower at 0.006481.

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6105.25/6162.28 Intraday high / High Jan 24             
• PRICE: 6036.00 @ 14:58 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / Intraday low        
• SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support 

The S&P E-Minis contract initially started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.