POWER: Swiss Hydro Stocks Extend Decline

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24  
• RES 1: $34.081 - High Mar 14                                  
• PRICE: $33.933 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 14   
• SUP 1: $32.526 - 20-day EMA          
• SUP 2: $31.867/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger 

Silver traded higher last week and in the process cleared key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.

NOK outperforms the G10 basket, with fresh strength seen over the last ~45 minutes as the European trading week gets underway. EURNOK is down 0.3%, with initial support at 11.5192 (Nov 25 low). Clearance of this level would expose 11.4681, the 76.4% retracement of the June 2024 - August 2024 bull leg. 

• We haven't seen an obvious trigger for the latest round of NOK buying, which may represent a delayed adjustment to the overnight bid in oil. Crude has been supported by intensive US strikes against Houthi positions due to the resumption of their targeting of vessels in the Red Sea (though has moved away from its earlier peak).
• This week's Norwegian calendar is headlined by the Q1 Regional Network Survey - a decisive input ahead of the Norges Bank's March 27 decision. A hawkish set of readings could tilt consensus away from a 25bp cut, despite Norges Bank's seemingly firm guidance. 

• RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.4543 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.4363 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 17 
• SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.