HUNGARY: Szijjarto to Discuss Sanctions, Tax Deal with US Treasury Secretary

• GoC yields are 0.7-1.5bp lower on the day, with declines led by the front end in the broader FI response to WSJ sources suggesting President-elect Trump won’t immediately unveil tariffs.
• USDCAD meanwhile has seen heavy declines, including a low of 1.4262 (latest 1.4293) that has now pierced multiple support levels. The latest was 1.4280 (Jan 6 low), opening 1.4226 (50-day EMA).
• Up next, the BoC publishes its influential business and consumer surveys for Q4 (BOS/CSCE) at 1030ET.
• The Q3 releases saw a notable moderation in inflation expectations, including BOS 2Y inflation falling 50bps to 2.5% after two quarters at 3% for what had been the very top of the 1-3% target range.
• We’ll also watch latest developments for firms hiring expectations and excess capacity.
• Note that the Q3 surveys were collected 8-30th and 6th-23rd of the mid-month and so a similar convention should at least capture initial reactions to the US presidential election result.
• BoC-dated OIS prices 19-20bp of cuts for next week’s BoC decision.

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
• RES 2: 1.0463 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 1.0417 @ 15:09 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0095 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish. For now, the latest recovery appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0338, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0403, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0463. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. 

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 6078.25 Intraday high            
• PRICE: 6071.00 @ 16:06 GMT Jan 20 
• SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16         
• SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.