EU HEALTHCARE: Takeda (TACHEM: Baa1/BBB+): 3Q25 - preview
Guidance was slightly improved in Oct '24 - look for confirmation.
• Gross Debt to EBITDA has been stable at just over 3x for several quarters. TACHEM won't go back to single A unless it addresses this. Last quarter this fell from 3.7x to 3.5x. We might see 0.1-0.2x improvement but still too high.
• At CER, Core Revenue was moved from Flat to slight decline to Flat to slight increase
• Core Operating Profits from Approx 10% decline to Mid-single-digit % decline
• Takeda has a significant pipeline of launched and soon-to-be launched products.
• Growth Products grew +18.7% CER last quarter - look for further good news. This represented 47% of total revenue.
• Entyvio (Crohn's disease) launched a Pen in the US which helped sales grow +10.7%. Peak sales are estimated at $7.5-9.0bn. Loses exclusivity in 2026 but extended life with new delivery system. Few biosimilars exist so competition is not thought to be a problem.
• Vyvanse loss of exclusivity means that it only represents <6% of sales now.
• Takeda completed its Yen Hybrid refinancing in June 24 and issued $3bn in long-dated US$. No need to issue.
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CROSS ASSET: Bunds Within Range of Lows, Higher Spanish CPI Leaves Little Mark
- Spanish inflation data came in ahead of expectations, with the headline driven by fuel prices as well as leisure. The release added some pretty to Bund prices, which shed ~20 ticks on release, but swiftly recovered the losses. Nonetheless, Bund futures remain well within range of cycle lows and the bear trigger at 132.71 - printed at the resumption of trade following the weekend.
- Currency markets trade with little conviction. The USD is marginally weaker as AUD, NZD and CAD recover off recent pullback lows, giving trade a consolidatory theme after fierce price action in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
- Stock futures are lower, pointing to another lower open on Wall Street - building on the weakness seen into the Friday close.
- Significant newsflow has been few and far between, with US domestic politics focusing on the internal Republican debate over H-1B visas and the passing of President Carter. We expect US bond and equity markets are to be closed across the Day of Mourning, set for January 9th.
- Focus for the duration of Monday trade will be on the MNI Chicago PMI at 1445GMT, expected to tick up to 43.0 from 40.2 previously. We anticipate volumes and broader liquidity to remain very light over the coming two sessions, particularly with tomorrow's European market closures and early closes elsewhere. EUR futures are posting cumulative volumes ~10% below an already subdued average for this time of day.
STIR: EURIBOR FIX - 30/12/24
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
| One-week | 2.912 | -0.023 |
| One-month | 2.867 | +0.004 |
| Three-month | 2.678 | -0.005 |
| Six-month | 2.562 | -0.015 |
| One-year | 2.454 | -0.011 |
CANADA: Ministers Leave Florida w/Out Tariff Assurances From Trump's Team
Canadian Finance Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, and Foreign Affairs Minister, Melanie Joly, met on Saturday with two key members of US President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming cabinet to discuss strategy to avoid a 25% tariff that Trump has threatened to impose unless Canada takes steps to secure the border.
- LeBlanc’s spokesperson described the Florida meeting with Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, and Interior Secretary/‘Energy Czar’ nominee, Doug Burgum, as “positive” and “productive”, noting the ministers “reiterated the shared commitment to strengthen border security" and "combat the harm caused by fentanyl." The spokesperson added that Lutnick and Burgum "agreed to relay information to President Trump.”
- Bloomberg reports: “It’s the second high-level Canadian mission to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in the past month, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met the incoming leader at the end of November,” noting that "Trudeau’s response to Trump’s tariff threat has been complicated by chaos in his government" including the resignation of finance minister Chrystia Freeland, who suggested in her resignation letter that Trudeau wasn't taking the tariff threat seriously.
- The New York Times notes the Canadians outlined a USD$900 million package of border security measures but “returned home without any assurances,” from Trump’s team.
- The Times adds: “…Trump has suggested that his tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada. Oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance. Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.”
