EQUITIES: Talk Of India Trade Deal Supports Equities
Seems a tweet from a Fox reporter plays into the recent bid in equities. The reporter notes that “People inside the Trump White House are alerting Wall Street execs they are nearing an agreement in principle on trade with India, according to my sources who are senior Wall Street execs w ties to the White House”…”the India deal being envisioned will include agreed upon goals, and issues that have been addressed and resolved as well as a deadline for the fully-baked trade pact, my sources say. It could be used as a template for a deal with Japan, South Korea and Australia”.
- This continues to underscore the sensitivity of the market to trade-related headlines, with little fresh news in that tweet, but the idea of some trade talks moving closer to an outcome (that would provide slightly less uncertainty and a less negative outcome than the baseline installed a few short weeks ago) providing a bid.
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US TSYS: Post New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Index React
- Tsy futures are extending gains after Conf. Board Consumer Confidence comes out lower than expected, New Home Sales dipped but up-revision of prior more than made up for the move.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trade 110-21 (+3.5) vs. 110-21.5 high, initial technical resistance well above at 111-17.5/25 (High Mar 20 / 11).
- Curves still steeper but off earlier highs: 2s10s +.566 at 30.146 (31.698 high), 5s30s +2.041 at 58.656 (58.949 high).
MNI: US FEB NEW HOME SALES +1.8% TO 0.676M SAAR
- MNI: US FEB NEW HOME SALES +1.8% TO 0.676M SAAR
- US JAN NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.664M SAAR
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 5924.59 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 5834.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5819.25 @ 13:48 GMT Mar 25
- SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are unchanged - they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, this week’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, at 5803.08. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.
