SOUTH AFRICA: Talk Of VAT Hikes In 2025 Budget Grows Louder

• RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1  
• RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12 and a key short-term resistance     
• RES 1: $2724.8 - High Jan 16      
• PRICE: $2706.3 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: $2651.2 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

The recent climb in Gold appears corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to its latest gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. The stronger recovery exposes $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2649.0, the 50-day EMA.

• A tight 17 ticks range for Bund Overnight, the US are out for MLK day and Trump's inauguration.
• While the contract is showing slightly in the red, it remains closer to Friday's high, where the initial resistance will be seen.
• The 131.97 high on Friday was also close to the 2.50% level in Yield terms.
• Initial small support comes at 131.50, Friday's low.
• The German PPI came below expectation on the Cash open, but was only worth a 8 ticks gain for the Bund, and there's no Data left for today's session.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Vujcic, Holzmann, Trump's Inauguration should start before noon Local time.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.33/35 20-day EMA / High Jan 17  
• PRICE: 119.07 @ Close Jan 17 
• SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.