BUNDS: Tariff annoucement is at at the forefront
* A small overnight gap lower for Bund, but the contract looks to close it into the cash Open, thi...
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 03-Mar | 815 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03-Mar | 845 | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03-Mar | 850 | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03-Mar | 855 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03-Mar | 900 | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03-Mar | 900 | IT | Deficit to GDP 2024/ GDP Y/Y |
| 03-Mar | 1000 | EU | HICP (p) |
| 04-Mar | 1000 | EU | Unemployment |
| 05-Mar | 745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05-Mar | 815 | ES | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 845 | IT | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 850 | FR | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 855 | DE | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 05-Mar | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 05-Mar | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0437/0533 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0413 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.0360 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
EURUSD is trading closer to its most recent lows and below the Feb 26 low. The pair has breached support at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low, and price is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a possible bearish reversal signal. A continuation lower would open 1.0272, Feb 4 low. For bulls, key short-term resistance is 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate a recent bull theme and open 1.0630, the Dec 6 high.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Intact Despite Pullback
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24
- RES 2: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 133.23 Intraday high
- PRICE: 132.54 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 133.46 High Feb 28
- SUP 2: 131.83/26 Low Feb 24 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. For now, a short-term bullish theme remains intact, following recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high, and this signals scope for a climb towards 133.71, the Feb 5 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. The first important support lies at 131.83, the Feb 24 low.
