GOLD:  Tariff Fears See New Gold Record

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2-4bps richer after US tsys enjoyed another solid session with carry-over risk-off support. 

• Heavy volumes in Tsy futures, tied to Mar'25/Jun'25 rolling, with both Mar'25 5Y and 10Y contracts well over 5M after the bell.
• Data underpinned rates: Conference Board's consumer confidence composite fell to 98.3 from 105.3 prior (102.5 expected), led by a drop in expectations to 72.9 from 82.2. February's Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing survey showed a deterioration in current regional activity to a 6-month low -13.1 from -9.1 prior (no consensus).
• Lower yields and pressure on major equity indices boosted the likes of JPY and CHF, while risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD have all underperformed.
• Swap rates are 3-5bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer. 26 bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 58bps by November 2025.
• Today, the local calendar will see NZ Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens deliver a presentation on the State of the Economy.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$225mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.

• Singapore to Sell S$3.2 Billion Bonds Due 2035
• Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
• Vietnam To Sell VND 12.0Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535023)
• Vietnam To Sell VND 1.0Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)

• NZD/USD fell 0.12% to 0.5726 on Tuesday. The currently up trend remains in tact while we trade above the 20 & 50-day EMAs. It's another quiet session on the data front for New Zealand, with any directional change likely coming for any geopolitical headlines. US equity futures have again sold off overnight which could hurt high beta currencies such as NZD & AUD, key event later today is Nvidia's earnings.
• Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5783 (100-Day EMA), a break here would open a move to retest 0.5800. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5706 would open a move to the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
• No large nearby strikes Wednesday. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5565 (NZD630.5m March 3), 0.5615 (NZD627m Feb. 28), 0.5440 (NZD335m Feb. 28)
• RBNZ dated-OIS is fully pricing in a 25bps cut in April, while there is about a 705 chance of a further 25bps cut priced for May.
• The NZ-US 2yr swap continues to rise, last up 3bps to -54bps, after earlier hitting -50bps.
• The calendar is empty today