BUNDS: Tariff News remain at the forefront
Apr-25 06:26
- There's very little change for Bund, the 132.03 level continues to provide a short term top, this is the April high and highest level since early March.
- Above the latter, mind the gap up to 132.40.
- Initial support is still at Yesterday's opening gap of 131.32, printed a 131.32 low Yesterday.
- The German contract is once again seeing some selling interest on the Cash open as the Risk On Tone prevails.
- Reports that China is considering suspending tariffs on some US Import, as well as Trump confirming that the US was in Talk with China has kept Equities underpinned and for now a cap on US Yields.
- UK Retail sales had no impact across multi asset since Tariff news lead the Globe.
- There's no Tier 1 data fro the session, for North America, the Canadian Retail Sales is due, but won't impact Bund, and the US Michigan will be final reading.
- SPEAKERS: Boe Greene.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
Mar-26 06:25
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2933 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: 1.2886 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 1.2869 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2731 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28
The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2869, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2731.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)
Mar-26 06:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 26-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Consumer inflation report |
| 26-Mar | - | - | OBR Spring Forecasts |
| 26-Mar | 1230 | - | Chancellor Reeves to deliver Spring Statement |
| 26-Mar | 1300 | - | DMO to announce FY25/26 financing remit (approx time) |
| 26-Mar | 1530 | Q2 | DMO agenda for quarterly consultation |
| 27-Mar | 0830 | - | BOE's Dhingra on inflation targeting in the UK post pandemic period |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Q4 | Current account balance / GDP 2nd est |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Jan | Trade Balance |
| 31-Mar | 0930 | Jan | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 31-Mar | - | - | DMO Quarterly Investors/GEMM consultation |
| 01-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01-Apr | 0915 | - | BoE's Greene on ‘UK MP/macro conjuncture’ |
| 01-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Services / Composite Final PMI |
| 04-Apr | 0730 | Q2 | DMO announce Apr-Jun issuance operations |
| 04-Apr | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Mar-26 06:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 26-Mar | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26-Mar | 800 | ES | GDP (f) |
| 26-Mar | 1800 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel on Digital Finance |
| 27-Mar | 900 | EU | M3 |
| 27-Mar | FR | Insee publishes General Govt balance | |
| 27-Mar | 1300 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 2025 IIF European Summit |
| 27-Mar | 1740 | EU | ECB's Schnabel lecture on MonPol Transmission |
| 27-Mar | 1805 | EU | ECB's Lagarde message for Women in Finance conference |
| 28-Mar | 700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 28-Mar | 745 | FR | PPI / Consumer Spending / Flash HICP |
| 28-Mar | 800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 28-Mar | 830 | EU | ECB de Guindos At Fed. of Female Professionals Conf |
| 28-Mar | 855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 28-Mar | 900 | IT | Business and Consumer confidence |
| 28-Mar | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 28-Mar | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28-Mar | 1100 | IT | PPI |
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