BUNDS: Tariffs drive the Risk Off Tone
Apr-16 06:27
- The German Bund saw a small gap higher on the open but didn't quite managed to break Yesterday's high at 131.57, after only managing a 131.35 Overnight.
- The German contract benefits from its Safer Haven status, but Desks have also positioned ahead of the ECB's expected cut on Growth Concerns, as Tariff Risks weigh on the Global Economies.
- The UK CPI was just a touch below Consensus and was only worth a 5 ticks gain in Bund, as Tariff news supersede, still Bund tested a session high post Cash Open.
- Trump is now restricting NVIDIA to sell its H20 chip to China, hence the Tech sector and wider Indices are under pressure going into the Europe session and will be watched on the EU Cash Open, NQM5 is down 2.0% vs 2.3% earlier.
- Trump has also launched a probe on the need for potential Tariffs on critical minerals.
- Today sees, EU, Italy final CPIs, US Retail Sales and IP, but the main Focus is on Fed Powell.
- SUPPLY: Germany 2025, 2030 (equates combined 20.3k Buxl) should weigh into the bidding deadline. There's a UK Tender but won't Impact Gilt.
- SYNDICATION: Italy dual Tranche.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Powell, Hammack.
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Historical bullets
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact
Mar-17 06:23
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0879 @ 16:26 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0674 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0557 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
Trend conditions in EURUSD remain bearish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current uptrend. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0557, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Mar-17 06:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 18-Mar | 0930 | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
| 19-Mar | 0001 | Feb | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Mar | 0700 | Jan/Feb | Labour Market Survey |
| 20-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20-Mar | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 20-Mar | 1200 | Agents summary of business conditions | |
| 21-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Public Sector Finances |
| 24-Mar | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Mar | 1800 | BOE's Bailey lecture on UK growth | |
| 25-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Consumer inflation report |
| 26-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Producer Prices |
| 26-Mar | - | OBR Spring Forecasts | |
| 26-Mar | 1530 | DMO agenda for quarterly consultation | |
| 27-Mar | 0830 | BOE's Dhingra on inflation targeting in the UK post-pandemic |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Mar-17 06:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 17-Mar | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 17-Mar | 1400 | EU | ECB's Lagarde at University Aix-Marselle |
| 18-Mar | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 18-Mar | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 19-Mar | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 19-Mar | 1200 | EU | ECB de Guindos In Madrid |
| 19-Mar | 1300 | EU | ECB Elderson At European Financials Conference |
| 20-Mar | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Mar | 800 | EU | ECB's Lagarde At ECON Hearing |
| 20-Mar | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Mar | 1200 | EU | ECB's Lane At UCC Economics Society's Conference |
| 21-Mar | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21-Mar | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 21-Mar | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 24-Mar | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Mar | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Mar | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
