POLAND: Teams Of Presidential Frontrunners Discuss Terms Of Potential Debate
Apr-11 07:25
- The teams of presidential front-runners Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki are still negotiating the terms of a proposed debate that could take place tonight (19:00BST/20:00CEST) and some sticking points remain. The debate would be organised in the town of Konskie, which became a symbol of provincial Poland and the key electoral battleground, after then-Civic Platform leader Grzegorz Schetyna said in 2015 that 'elections are won in Konskie rather than [the affluent Warsaw district of] Wilanow'. During the 2020 presidential campaign, Trzaskowski refused to accept an invitation to the town for a debate with his rival Andrzej Duda, who later won second term in the run-off. The idea of holding a two-way debate at this early stage of the presidential campaign has been criticised by Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia and some other candidates, who accused Trzaskowski and Nawrocki of trying to create an impression that their progression to the run-off is a done deal and deny the others a chance of making their case to the voters on equal terms.
- The latest Opinia24/RMF FM opinion poll showed that far-right Confederation's presidential candidate Slawomir Mentzen has suffered a setback and his support rate dropped to 14.7% versus Trzaskowski's 31.5% and Nawrocki's 20.1%. Mentzen had earlier been closing the gap on Nawrocki, which had increased the odds of a fierce battle for a spot in the run-off. In a streak of controversial comments, Mentzen called for tighter restrictions on abortion, backed the introduction of higher education tuition fees, and was ordered by a court to apologise to Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia for spreading misinformation. On the other hand, it remains to be seen if the latest poll was a bellwether of a trend or a one-off statistical artefact.
- Citi Handlowy economists adjusted their NBP call and now see 50bp cuts in both May and July, and then by a further 25bp in November. They revised their view on the terminal rate and now see it at 3.50% in 2026 (in line with Governor Glapinski's guidance) rather than 3.75% in 2027.
- European Finance Ministers and central bank chiefs touch down in Warsaw for a two-day informal summit today.
- The NBP will release February current account data at 13:00BST/14:00CEST.
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EURJPY TECHS: Reversal Higher Extends
Mar-12 07:18
- RES 4: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 1: 161.79 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 161.53 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 158.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
EURJPY traded higher Tuesday and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. A short-term bull theme remains intact following the strong reversal that started Feb 28. The cross has pierced resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 162.70, the Jan 28 high. Initial support to watch is 158.91, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
BUNDS: EU Launches Tariffs countermeasure, US CPI in focus
Mar-12 07:18
- A more steady overnight session for Bund compared to the overall price action seen just in early March, as the contract plummeted 551 ticks since the 3rd March.
- Bund did trade below last Week's low of 126.64 Yesterday, printed a 126.53 low, although as noted, the next area of interest is at 2.95% in Yield.
- The German Bund is underpinned going into the Cash open, and testing session high as {eu} Europe launches countermeasure on US Imports worth up to €26bn.
- Resistance in Bund is at 127.45, but 128.33 is initial notable hurdle.
- Today sees, Portugal final CPI, ECB Wage Tracker, but it is all about the US CPI today, the main event for the Week on the Data front.
- SUPPLY: UK £4bn 10yr (Equates to 34.4k Gilt) should weigh, German €4.5bn 10yr (Equates to 37.2k Bund) could weigh, Portugal 2035, 2038 should have a limited impact. US sells $39bn of 10yr reopening.
- SPEAKERS: Packed with ECB speakers, today includes, Lagarde, Simkus, Villeroy, Nagel, Lane, Escriva, Centeno, Panetta.
NORGES BANK: VIEW: SEB Raise Terminal Rate Forecast To 3.50% From 3.00% Prior
Mar-12 07:13
Yesterday afternoon, SEB raised their Norges Bank terminal rate forecast by 50bps to 3.50% by the end of 2026. While they still expect a 25bp cut in March following the stronger-than-expected February inflation report, further easing is now expected to be delivered at a more protracted pace than before.
- In 2025, they expect 25bps cuts in March and September, removing calls for cuts in June and December.
- In 2026, they continue to expect a 25bp cut in March, but shift a 25bp cut in June to September.
- Their call for a March 2025 cut assumes no surprises in next week’s Regional Network Report.
- “Regardless of a March cut or not, the rate path will be revised notably higher. This was the case already before the inflation surprise. Besides higher prices and cost (as described above), rates abroad are higher, and the import-weighted NOK is somewhat weaker than assumed”.
- “Uncertainty regarding international trade barriers remain significant, but signals from Europe of substantially higher defense spending improves the economic outlook among trading partners and thus for Norwegian exports”.
