ISRAEL: Tensions Spike As IDF Says Beirut Strikes Targeted Hezbollah Drones

Mar-28 12:12

Reuters reports comments from the Israeli military claiming that its missile strikes earlier today on the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut were targeting infrastructure allegedly used by Hezbollah to store drones. The strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon come after two rockets were fired towards northern Israel from Lebanese territory earlier on 28 March. The strikes are the first to hit Beirut since the November ceasefire came into effect. Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun, who is currently in Paris, has told French President Emmanuel Macron that the strikes on Beirut are a "continuation of Israeli violations [of the] ceasefire agreement."

  • Lebanon's Al Mayadeen news reports comments from a Hezbollah official denying the group's participation in the rocket attacks in recent days. Claims "these incidents come within the context of fabricating suspicious pretexts to continue the Israeli aggression against Lebanon."
  • The IDF has also claimed that overnight strikes in southern Lebanon killed a senior Hezbollah commander.
  • Hezbollah remains a much-weakened force following the Israeli invasion in October 2024, and it remains to be seen if the group is capable of re-launching a significant offensive against Israeli forces in the southern border regions. Nevertheless, the IDF striking the capital once again will be seen as a risk to the ceasefire. 

Historical bullets

GERMANY: SPD Co-Leader Confirms Contact w/Merz 'Soon' On Gov't Talks Timetable

Feb-26 12:05

Following his election as chair of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) faction in the Bundestag, SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil has confirmed that he and leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz have agreed to speak soon in order to set up a timetable for coalition talks. Says "It is the SPD's will to achieve a functioning government" adding "it is also up to Merz". 

  • Disagreements between the CDU and SPD are already evident over a 'minor inquiry' put forward by the Union. Titled "Political neutrality of state-supported organizations" it asks 551 questions of non-profits that receive state funding. Some of these groups mobilised against Merz following the CDU voting alongside the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on a motion in January related to asylum and immigration.
  • The leader of the SPD's youth wing (Jusos) in the state of Thuringia has demanded the Union withdraw the inquiry before the SPD begins coalition talks.
  • The actions of Jusos should not be discounted in influencing SPD policy. In 2018, Jusos national chair Kevin Kühnert led a vocal (if eventually unsuccessful) opposition to the formation of a 'grand coalition' with the CDU then led by Angela Merkel.
  • With the SPD coming off the back of its worst election result in over a century, and Merz sitting to the right of Merkel in terms of economic and social policy, a Jusos-led opposition to a 'grand coalition' could pose obstacles, given that the approval of SPD grassroots members will be needed for any coalition deal. 

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.2% SA THRU FEB 21 WK

Feb-26 12:00
  • MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.2% SA THRU FEB 21 WK

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Spread Buyer

Feb-26 11:54

ERM5 97.8125/97.6875ps 1x2, bought for 1.75 in 20k.