SOUTH AFRICA: Tensions With US Dominate Post-SONA Debate

• The Dollar was on the front foot in G10, only the Yen was holding onto small gains, albeit by just 0.16%.
• The Dollar is seeing a fresh bid as Europe Joins the session, at a new intraday high against GBP, EUR, SEK, INR, ZAR, MXN, NZD, and the NOK.
• Goldman Sachs has updated its EURUSD forecast and targets parity in 3 Months, {r2} While NAB look for Cable to trade below 1.2100 in the coming days.
• Next immediate support in the EURUSD is right here at 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg.
• For Cable, it is now testing 1.2126 Low Jan 13, and further downside momentum will open to 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing.

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 5966.50 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance          
• PRICE: 5842.25 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 13 
• SUP 1: 5831.00 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the contract is trading lower today. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirms the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and opens 5811.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. First pivot resistance is seen at 5996.50, the 50-day EMA

• RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1  
• RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12    
• RES 1: $2698.0 - High Jan 10     
• PRICE: $2688.8 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: $2642.1 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal is holding on to last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2642.1, the 50-day EMA.