NORWAY: Tentative Evidence Of Recovery In Manufacturing IP

The January services PMI just about remained in expansionary territory at 50.1 (vs 51.2 prior). The series is reasonably volatile month-to-month, but has generally trended higher alongside the Economic Tendency Indicator’s services sentiment series since the start of 2024. 

• This contrasts with the manufacturing PMI, which has diverged from the Economic Tendency Indicator’s manufacturing sentiment series in recent months.
• The composite PMI was 50.9 (vs 51.5 prior), the third consecutive month in expansionary territory.
• The details of the services release were not overly strong. Production was 50.1 (vs 50.0 prior), while new orders dipped to 49.5 (vs 50.1 prior). The employment index softened to 45.6 (vs 47.7 prior).
• Meanwhile, supplier input prices rose notably to 65.5 (vs 61.9 prior), the highest since August 2023.

• MNI: FRANCE DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.4% M/M, -1.7% Y/Y
• FRANCE DEC MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -0.7% M/M, -2.6% Y/Y

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24 
• RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31 
• RES 1: 6069.00 High Feb 3                
• PRICE: 6031.75 @ 05:02 GMT Feb 5 
• SUP 1: 5935.50 Low Feb 3           
• SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14 
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance 

Monday’s initial sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract and  breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is at 6069.00, Tuesday’s intraday high. Gains are considered corrective, however, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.