CREDIT RATING: Terna (TRNIM Baa2/A-/NR): S&P Upgrade

• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction to sell the off-the-run 0.50% Apr-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F76), the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67) and the 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95) The size will be announced this afternoon.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction with a combined E11.5-13.5bln on offer: the on-the-run 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68), alongside the 0% May-32 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007L00) and the 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7).
• Next on Thursday, Ireland will hold a IGB auction. Details will be announced this morning. We expect two lines to be on offer with a good chance of a 10-year issue (either the 2.60% Oct-34 IGB or 0.40% May-35 IGB) and/or a green bond (the 1.35% Mar-31 Green IGB or the 3.00% Oct-43 Green IGB).
• Later on Thursday, France will return to the market to hold a IL OAT auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.0bln. On offer will be the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
• Cancelled auction: Note that due to last week’s syndication / switch and tender operation, the PDMA has announced that the auction that was previously scheduled for Wednesday has been cancelled

NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week total E4.5bln of which E2.2bln are Italian, E1.2bln are Austrian, E0.5bln are German and E0.3bln are Greek. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E21.9bln, vs negative E8.3bln last week.

Slovakia, Finland, Germany, Spain, France and Ireland are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E26.4bln, vs E32.2bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.

• Today, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction to sell the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
• Tomorrow, Finland will hold a conventional auction to a sell combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104) and the 2.75% Apr-38 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000546528).
• On Wednesday, Germany will hold a 30-year Bund auction to sell E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).

Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E19.3bln in first round operations, down from E24.0bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will selll E3bln of the new 12-month Mar 18, 2026 Bubill
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will issue E1.0-1.5bln of the 2-month May 28, 2025 DTC and E1.0-1.5bln of the 5-month Aug 28, 2025 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will come to the market to sell a combined E8.0bln of the 14/25/27/49-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the new 14-week Jun 25, 2025 BTF, E0.5-0.9bln of the 25-week Sep 10, 2025 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 27-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF and E1.3-1.7bln of the 49-week Feb 25, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Sep 18, 2025 bills
• On Wednesday, Portugal will issue E1.0-1.25bln of the new 12-month Mar 20, 2026 BT.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Jun 6, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Sep 5, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill.