EURIBOR: The Euribor Volume in one Chart

No tangible recovery for e-minis after the cash open, with much of the tariff-inspired overnight weakness consolidated.

• Fresh selling kicks in following the ISM manufacturing survey, given the headline beat and with prices paid back into expansionary territory.
• The 3 major e-mini contracts are 1.4-2.0% lower vs. settlement, with the NASDAQ 100 the weakest and the DJIA the most resilient.
• Technically, a move through session lows in the S&P 500 contract would expose Fibonacci support at the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5-Dec 6 bull leg (5,892.37).
• The IT, consumer discretionary and industrial sectors lead the move lower, as you would generally expect in a tariff-driven risk-off environment.
• U.S. President Trump’s tariff-centric discussions with the Canadian & Mexican administrations are set to dominate for the remainder of the day.

• RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16 
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 2: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.44 Intraday high                
• PRICE: 93.22 @ 03:02 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 91.99/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24                                
• SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and today’s gains, reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Sights are on 93.64, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support is at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.  First support lies at 91.99, the 20-day EMA.

• Treasuries pare gains after larger than expected ISM MFG, Prices Paid and Construction spending data.
• Curves extend flatter as short end rates take the brunt of the move, 2s10s -8.206 at 25.543. Mar'25 10Y futures see some dip buying already, trade 109-05 (+10) last vs. 109-01.5 post data.
• Initial technical resistance at 109-10.5/13 (50-day EMA / High Jan 30)