MACRO OUTLOOK: The US Macro Week Ahead: Powell And Retail Sales
Apr-11 21:13
Looking ahead to next week:
- Two of the Fed's most senior leaders speak on the economic outlook in the coming week: Gov Waller on Monday and Chair Powell on Wednesday. This will be the first commentary by both since the April 9 Trump administration announced a reciprocal tariff "pause" with a large hike in the Chinese levy, and associated bond / swap market turmoil.
- It's doubtful Powell will shift his approach on monetary policy versus his April 4 appearance when he said "it feels like we don't need to be in a hurry" to cut rates, but there will be attention paid to whether his tone reflects those of other Fed officials who have sounded increasingly cautious about the upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Additionally, any discussion of how the Fed views volatility in Treasury markets by Waller or Powell will be closely eyed.
- March retail sales (Wednesday) is the week’s key data release: it’s expected to show a large sequential acceleration (1.4% M/M consensus vs 0.2% in Feb), with growth in the key Control Group reading remaining strong at 0.7% (1.0% prior). Should these expectations be met, it will add to the tension between solid incoming data and weaker sentiment indicators – and ultimately will be assessed for whether it represents tariff front-running more than continued strength in consumer demand.
- Meanwhile, the NY Fed’s consumer expectations survey will be watched for any corroboration of the soaring inflation concerns evident in recent UMichigan reports.
| Date | ET | Impact | Event |
| 14 Apr | 1100 | ** | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 14 Apr | 1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 14 Apr | 1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 14 Apr | 1300 | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 14 Apr | 1800 | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 14 Apr | 1940 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 15 Apr | 0830 | ** | Import/Export Price Index |
| 15 Apr | 0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15 Apr | 0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 15 Apr | 1130 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 15 Apr | 1910 | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 16 Apr | 0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 16 Apr | 0830 | *** | Retail Sales |
| 16 Apr | 0915 | *** | Industrial Production |
| 16 Apr | 1000 | * | Business Inventories |
| 16 Apr | 1000 | ** | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16 Apr | 1030 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 16 Apr | 1200 | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 16 Apr | 1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 16 Apr | 1330 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 16 Apr | 1600 | ** | TICS |
| 16 Apr | 1900 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan, KC Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 17 Apr | 0830 | *** | Jobless Claims |
| 17 Apr | 0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 17 Apr | 0830 | *** | Housing Starts |
| 17 Apr | 0830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 17 Apr | 1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 17 Apr | 1145 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 17 Apr | 1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
| 18 Apr | 1100 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 18 Apr | 1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 18 Apr | 1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Thusday
Mar-12 21:09
| 2145GMT | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand Jan Net Migration |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Offshore Weekly Inv Flows |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia March Inflation Expectations |
| 0001GMT | 0801HKT | 1101AEDT | UK Feb RICS House Pirce Balance |
| 0135GMT | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | New Zealand Bond Sale |
| 0230GMT | 1030HKT | 1330AEDT | Australia RBA Jones On A Panel |
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low
Mar-12 21:00
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4473/4543 High Mar 10 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4406 @ 14:59 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
BOC: MNI BoC Review-March 2025: Trade War Tradeoffs
Mar-12 20:50
We've just published our review of March's Bank of Canada meeting - Download Full Report Here, including a summary of sell-side analysts' reviews of the decision and press conference.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut at the seventh consecutive meeting in March, by 25bp to an overnight rate target of 2.75%, in line with analyst consensus and market pricing.
- The 225bp of easing since June brings rates to what Governor Macklem characterized as the middle of the “neutral” range, putting policy in a finely poised position with the escalating trade war between Canada and the U.S. looming large over the economic outlook.
- Overall the press conference leaned marginally hawkish, as Macklem was if anything more emphatic on the need to keep inflation / inflation expectations under control.
- There was no post-meeting change in analyst expectations for the rate path ahead, with overwhelming consensus for a terminal rate of 2.25% (two more 25bp cuts), in line with market pricing. But those views are very much contingent on trade developments – and much could change between now and the Apr 16 decision.
