STIR: Three Cuts For 2025 Ahead Of Payrolls And Powell et al
Mar-07 11:41
* Fed Funds implied rates are towards the dovish end of recent ranges ahead of an important docket...
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BONDS: OAT vs BTP block trade
Feb-05 11:39
- OATH5 bought for 124.56 in ~1.7k.
- IKH5 sold at 120.66 in 750 and 120.65 in 750.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Clears Resistance
Feb-05 11:34
- In FX, gains in EURUSD are considered corrective. A strong reversal from Monday’s low does highlight a potential hammer candle formation on that day. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. 1.0386 (pierced) to 1.0443, the area between the 20-and 50-days EMAs, marks an important resistance zone. A clear break of it would be a bullish development.
- Resistance in GBPUSD at 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high, has been cleared. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead reinstates the bull cycle that started Jan 13. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.
- USDJPY is trading lower today and this has resulted in a break of short-term support at 153.72, the Jan 27 low. The move marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Jan 10 and clears the way for 152.55 next, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. Clearance of this level would open 151.81, the Dec 12 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 155.59, the 20-day EMA.
FOREX: USDJPY Bear Cycle Extension, Initial Support Holds
Feb-05 11:33
- USDJPY downside momentum gained traction on Wednesday, following a break of short-term support at 153.72, the Jan 27 low. The move marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Jan 10. Both sides of the trade have been working in tandem as the USD index extends its pullback to roughly 2.3%, and stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data assists a more hawkish BOJ narrative.
- We previously noted support at 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement, which has held at first attempt. However, should the short-term sentiment extend through US hours, more meaningful support is found at 151.81, the Dec 12 low. Below here, attention would be on 151.06, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
- SocGen questions if USDJPY can fall much further "if the US economy remains robust, the Fed doesn’t ease much further and Treasury yields remain, essentially, rangebound". They, instead, see a "short-term solution [of] selling EURJPY [...] where the deterioration in Eurozone growth expectations relative to Japan is striking".
- Further weakness in the cross would place attention on 156.99, the Dec 4 low, and 156.18, the Dec 3 low and a key support.
