TARIFFS: Timeline Unveiled, Canada, Mexico Spared Reciprocal Tariffs

• RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4472 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.4441 @ 16:40 GMT Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 1.4288 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

The USDCAD correction that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 1.4380, the Feb 10 high, has been breached. This opens 1.4472 next and 1.4548,  Fibonacci retracement points. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4288, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.  

• Treasuries look to finish near late session highs, stocks weaker - after Pres Trump's late "investment announcement" press conference weighed on risk sentiment. While Trump annc'd large $100B investment by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), comments that there is "no room left for deal on Canada, Mexico" ahead of Tuesday's deadline.
• Prior, Trump posted on Truth Social: "To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!"
• Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures climbed to 111-19.5 (+16.5), through a couple rounds of resistance with focus on 111-22.5 (High Dec 3 ‘24 and a key resistance). Curves mixed, 2s10s -1.317 at 20.206, 5s30s +2.056 at 48.822.
• Morning data helped Treasurys rebound off lows after ISM Prices paid surge: 62.4 (cons 56.0, 7 responses vs 59 for the headline index) after 54.9 - highest prices paid since Jun 2022 having increased since Nov (when Trump won the presidential election).
• VIX vol index surged to 23.76 high (23.29 +3.66 after the bell) as stocks fell below Friday's lows (SPX Eminis -134.25 to 5829.0), Bbg US$ index weaker but off lows (BBDXY -5.0 aty 1293.12).

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6309 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6245 @ 16:36 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.6193 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD traded lower last week. The impulsive sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. Price is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171, the Feb 4 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and suggest scope for a test of the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6309, the 50-day EMA.