POLAND: Top NBP Officials Stand By Official Line On Monetary Policy
Mar-28 08:28
- NBP Governor Adam Glapinski reaffirmed his familiar message in a pre-recorded speech aired at the Banking Forum yesterday. The official failed to mention softer-than-expected macroeconomic data and stood by his assessment that "there's no basis to change interest rates". The Governor's hawkish rhetoric from his most recent press conference has been tested by incoming data as well as comments from a number of his colleagues, many of whom signalled the possibility of loosening monetary policy as soon as in 2H2025.
- NBP Deputy Governor Marta Kightley (not an MPC member) poured call water on optimism surrounding below-forecast CPI and wage data for January/February, noting that inflation remains well above the target, while the latest outturn for wages was confined to the private sector. She pushed back against growing pressure on the NBP to cut interest rates, arguing that lowering them now would stabilise inflation at elevated levels, translating into higher costs of living.
- The CEOs of Polish banks will hold a press conference at 12:00GMT/13:00CET to discuss recent calls to slap a windfall tax on the sector after it has been registering record-breaking profits, a function of high interest rates and plenty of excess liquidity. Meanwhile, anti-monopoly watchdog head Tomasz Chrostny said that the proposed measure should indeed be considered and expressed his support for forward-looking solutions.
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GILTS: Flat Start, Global Cues Still Eyed
Feb-26 08:23
Gilts little changed with Bunds and Tsys off lows ahead of the UK open.
- Core global FI came under pressure in Asia on the back of increased odds of U.S. tax cuts.
- M5 futures -6 at 93.17, narrow 93.12-24 range to start.
- Initial resistance at the Feb 13 high (93.39), with the bullish technical theme intact in the contract.
- Roll completion stands at ~85% ahead of tomorrow’s first notice for H5.
- Yields little changed to 1bp lower across the curve.
- Little of note on the UK data calendar today,
- BoE dove Dhingra will speak on “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy” from 16:30 GMT, don’t expect a change in tone after she reaffirmed her dovish stance earlier in the week (pushing back against the idea of gradual cuts given her view on consumption).
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Feb-26 08:19
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $31.752 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: $31.290 - Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded sharply lower Tuesday and in the process breached the 20-day EMA and pierced $31.396, the 50-day EMA. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread seller
Feb-26 08:10
ERM5 97.62/97.75cs sold at 9.75 in 6.25k.
