BUNDS: Trade developments are firmly at the forefront

• The Dollar edges slowly deeper in the red against most G10s, the SEK leads, but is well within last Week's range.
• The early Risk on Tone following reports that the White House will likely narrow its approach to Tariffs, although none of this is really clear, and potential announcements remain fluid, has kept the Dollar on the backfoot versus G10s in early trade.
• Higher Equities and a tick higher in Yield has put the Yen as the worst early performer, but USDJPY failed to break back above the 150.00 figure after only managing a 149.95 high overnight.
• Initial resistance is still eyed at 150.18.

• RES 4: 5929.04 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level  
• RES 2: 5801.77 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5770.50 High Mar 19                   
• PRICE: 5766.75 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 24  
• SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger                  
• SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing 
• SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
• SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing          

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged -they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5801.77, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 5559.75, Mar 13 low.

• RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance 
• RES 2: $70.98 - High Feb 25  
• RES 1: $69.09 - 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: $68.36 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $64.85 - Low Mar 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $59.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing   

Despite holding on to its recent gains, a bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.12, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.