US TSYS: Trade Negotiation Optimism Spurs Strong Risk-On Support

• Treasuries look to finish modestly higher, holding a narrow range since midday after gradually recovering from this morning's opening lows.
• Tsy futures pared losses after Philly Fed non-mfg index comes out much lower than prior -32.5 vs. -13.1. Futures extended gains after Conf. Board Consumer Confidence came out lower than expected, New Home Sales dipped but up-revision of prior more than made up for the move.
• Fed Gov Kugler (permanent FOMC voter)'s overall view on rates is unsurprisingly very similar to pre-FOMC and the Committee's overall signaling of a wait-and-see stance on rate moves
• Little react to this afternoon's $69B 2Y note auction (91282CMV0), in-line with 3.984% high yield vs. 3.985% WI.
• Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trade 110-23.5 (+6) vs. 110-26 high, initial technical resistance well above at 111-17.5/25 (High Mar 20 / 11). Curves still steeper but off earlier highs: 2s10s +.296 at 29.876 (31.698 high), 5s30s +2.459 at 59.074 (59.800 high).
• Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index receded (-1.21 at 1270.55), Gold trades +8.0 at 3019.04, stocks near steady (SPX Eminis) to mildly mixed, the tech-heavy Nasdaq mildly higher.
• Wednesday focus on Durables/Cap Goods at 0830ET, Tsy 5Y Sale at 1300ET, Fed Speak: MN Fed Kashkari Fed listens event (no text, Q&A) at 1000ET, StL Fed Musalem on economy/policy (text, Q&A) at 1310ET.

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg  
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 1: 151.00 50-day EMA and a key short-term resistance  
• PRICE: 149.79 @ 16:18 GMT Mar 25 
• SUP 1: 148.18/146.54 Low Mar 20 / 11 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 147.36 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

USDJPY faded off highs across Tuesday trade. The primary trend direction is down and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on key resistance at 151.00, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus sights on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.  

Large SOFR put volumes reported in early NY trade evaporated, Tsy option volumes remained muted but leaned towards low delta puts & spds with underlying futures climbing off early lows, holding modest gains through the second half. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gain slightly vs. early morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -3.9bp, Jun'25 at -18.3bp (-16.3bp), Jul'25 at -29.5bp (-27bp), Sep'25 -44.5bp (-41.5bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • over 64,600 0QU5 95.50 puts, 4.5 ref 96.42 (45.5k piece followed by smaller lots)
  • 6,000 SFRJ5 95.75 puts ref 95.865
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.87/96.06 broken put flys ref 96.23
  • Blocks, 9,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spds, 0.25 adds to 23k on Monday
  • 4,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.12/96.37/96.50 3x2x2x2 call condors ref 95.855
  • 8,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 95.855
  • 3,000 SFRZ5 96.62/97.12 call spds ref 96.23
  • 2,000 0QK5 95.75/96.00 put spds ref 96.425
  • 2,000 SFRN5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 96.09
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 FVM5 107.75 straddles, ref 107-23
  • 2,000 TYK5 111.5/112 call spds 8 ref 110-21
  • over 13,000 TUK5 103.37/103.5 put spds ref 103-13
  • 4,600 TYM5 107.5/109 3x2 put spds ref 110-11
  • 2,000 TUK5 103.12 puts ref 103-11
  • 1,800 TYK5 109/109.5 put spds
  • over 5,200 TYK5 112.5 calls, 13 ref 110-11
  • 1,200 TYM5 113/115/117 call flys, ref 110-12