CHILE: Traders See BCCh On Hold Next Week

• MNI: US MAR PHILADELPHIA FED NONMFG INDEX -32.5

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• We look at key timings for the Spring Statement, DMO remit and DMO consultation agendas.
• We look at how fiscal headroom currently stands and where it stood in the Autumn.
• Without Chancellor Reeves making any changes, there will be an extra c. GBP15bln of headroom available to her next year due to a little noticed detail in the fiscal rules.
• We look at how defence spending could lead to additional headroom.
• We also look at the likelihood that Reeves is removed as Chancellor and what would happen to her fiscal rules.

• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading lower today. Resistance remains intact and - for now - recent gains are considered corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. The 20-day EMA, first resistance, is at 128.78. A recent impulsive sell-off reinforced a bear theme and signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a 2.618 projection of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing. Further out, 126.00 is also within range.
• The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Monday’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A break of this level is required to highlight a bullish condition. Support at 91.07, the Mar 13 low, has been pierced. This opens the bear trigger at 90.71, the Mar 6 low. A break of 90.71 resumes the downtrend.