GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Resistance
- RES 4: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 2: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2572 Intraday High
- PRICE: 1.2560 @ 06:26 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 1.2434 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
Strong gains on Thursday in GBPUSD strengthens a short-term bullish condition. The pair has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and breached resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 106.835 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 106.650/785 High Jan 10 / 6
- PRICE: 106.470 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 106.435 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including fresh cycle lows this week, reinforce this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 106.375 next, the Oct 31 ‘24 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 106.835, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Dec | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
| 03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2597 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2433 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2322 High Jan 10
- PRICE: 1.2201@ 06:20 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2433, the 20-day EMA.
