USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support
* RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance * RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance * RES 2: 1.464...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.394 @ 08:02 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: $31.606/100 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
A bull theme in Silver remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.100, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
STIR: SONIA Futures Follow USD and EUR Counterparts Lower, Labour Data Mixed
The December/January labour market data was slightly mixed, with SONIA futures following EUR and USD counterparts lower at the open.
- Private regular wages were a little softer than expected, with the HMRC PAYE RTI data continuing to point to a downward trend in pay growth. However, this was somewhat offset in terms of market reaction by a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and higher than expected employment growth, alongside broader pressure in the rates space.
- SONIA futures are -1.5 to -3.5 ticks through the blues, off session lows at typing.
- BOE-dated OIS price 54bps of easing through year-end, around 3bps more hawkish than yesterday’s close. The next full 25bp cut continues to be priced through the June gathering.
- BOE Governor Bailey speaks in a Fireside Chat on “Preserving and enhancing open financial markets” at 0930GMT, so is unlikely to focus on monetary policy topics.
- Regional focus turns to tomorrow’s January inflation report (MNI’s preview here)
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 4.434 | -2.0 |
| May-25 | 4.244 | -21.0 |
| Jun-25 | 4.169 | -28.5 |
| Aug-25 | 4.022 | -43.3 |
| Sep-25 | 3.990 | -46.5 |
| Nov-25 | 3.923 | -53.1 |
| Dec-25 | 3.910 | -54.4 |
| Feb-26 | 3.887 | -56.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4195 @ 07:58 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD is trading at its recent lows. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.
