EURGBP TECHS: Trading Clear of Support

• RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg   
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.0497 @ 16:22 GMT Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run     
• SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4  
• SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run

EURUSD has started the week on a firm note. The recovery undermines a recent bear theme and has exposed 1.0529, the Feb 26 high, and more importantly, resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear break of 1.0533 would highlight an important technical break and a stronger bullish S/T theme. This would open 1.0630, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A key near-term support has been defined at 1.0360, the Feb 28 low. A break of it would be bearish. 

• Latest comments from Zelensky via a post on x:
  • We continue our work with partners. We have already had talks and other steps to come soon.
  • It is very important that we try to make our diplomacy really substantive to end this war the soonest possible.
  • We need real peace and Ukrainians want it most because the war ruins our cities and towns. We lose our people. We need to stop the war and to guarantee security.
  • We are working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace. Peace is needed as soon as possible.

• The bearish follow through for the greenback on Monday has continued to propel GBP, with cable showing back above 1.2700 in recent trade. A close above 1.2710 would be the highest daily close since December 11, and it is worth noting that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position.
• This highlights a potentially stronger bull cycle, targeting 1.2767 (50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg) and 1.2811, the Dec 06 high. Price action for EURGBP has been muted on Monday, however, the cross continues to hover just above a key support zone. 0.8223 (Dec 19 low) represents initial support before 0.8203, the Mar 7 ’22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
• JP Morgan pointed out that the Lloyds survey, in combination with the latest retail sales report, suggests that the confidence hit from the budget may be fading, and have therefore neutralised their GBP bearish view for now.
• JPM point out that patience on the bearish GBP view is required as it could take a bit longer for the weak labour market surveys to filter through to the harder labour market data. Focus may turn back to the UK fiscal situation in the build up to the late March OBR UK growth forecast update.