EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20          
• RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg    
• RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 117.573/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5 and the bull trigger                             
• PRICE: 117.280@ 05:37 GMT Feb 17  
• SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12                  
• SUP 2: 117.016 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and  key support       

Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback still appears corrective - for now. However, price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.430. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 117.016. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. A break of it resumes the recent uptrend.

• In what seems to be a rare occurrence these days, the China 10YR future rose +0.08 today to be at 108.91.
• The 10YR future has been oscillating within the midpoint of the 20-day EMA of 109.11 and the 50-day EMA of 108.63.
• China’ s 2YR future rallied also by 0.04 but too remains within the midpoint of the 20-day EMA of 102.71 and the 50-day EMA of 102.73.
• Key data out for China this week is the MLF Rate where no change is expected, new and used home prices ending the week with the 1 and 5-year Loan prime rate where again no change is expected.