USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.39 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.33/50.65 High Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 147.47 @ 16:06 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 2: 146.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point south. Thursday’s resumption of the downtrend paves the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
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PIPELINE: Late Corporate & Supra-Sovereign US$ Debt Issuance Update
At least $28.25B domestic/foreign corporate and supra-sovereign debt to price Wednesday, still waiting on $2.5B Republic of Turkiye 7Y to price
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/05 $5.5B #Republic of Poland $2.75B 5Y +75, $2.75B 10Y +105
- 02/05 $4.75B #IBM $1B 3Y +45, $1B 5Y +60, $850M 7Y +70, $900M 10Y +80, $1B 30Y +105
- 02/05 $3.5B #PepsiCo $500M 2Y +22, $750M 3Y +27, $1B 5Y +40, $1.25B 10Y +60
- 02/05 $3B #UBS $1.5B PerpNC5.5 7%, $1.5B PerpNC10 7.125%
- 02/05 $2.5B #US Bancorp $1.3B 6NC5 +80, $1.2B 11NC10 +100
- 02/05 $2.5B #IDA 10Y SOFR+61
- 02/05 $2B *Citigroup PerpNC5 6.95%
- 02/05 $1B #Citadel Finance 5Y +170
- 02/05 $1B #Minera Mexico 7Y +140
- 02/05 $1B *KFW 4% 2026 TAP SOFR+20
- 02/05 $1B #BBVA Mexico 10NC5 7.625%
- 02/05 $500M #Healthpeak LLC 10Y +102
- 02/05 $2.5B Republic of Turkiye 7Y 7.2%
- Expected Thursday:
- 02/06 $Benchmark IFC 4.5Y SOFR+36a
US TSY OPTIONS: Scale Buyer March'25 1Y Put Update
- Over +110,000 TYH5 109 puts on the day from 18 to 26 (expire Feb 21), open interest 66,520 coming into the session
US: Senate On Track To Confirm All Of Trump Executive Nominees
The Senate is on track to confirm two more of Trump’s Cabinet nominees this week - Scott Turner to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development and Russell Vought to lead the Office of Management and Budget.
- If the two are confirmed, the Senate will have confirmed 13 Cabinet members within the first three weeks of Trump’s second term – eclipsing the confirmation speed of his first term and that of former President Joe Biden’s term.
- Politico writes: “The firehose of news from the White House risks obscuring what ranks as one of President Donald Trump’s most stunning feats: This was the week that he finally broke the Senate,” allowing for the confirmation of Cabinet officials, “who once would have seemed unimaginable for their posts.”
- Axios notes: “All of President Trump's nominees for the most senior positions in government are on track to get confirmed — a rarity for any modern president, and a particular coup for Trump and his cast of "destroyers."
- Axios has published a useful guide to the status of Trump’s Cabinet nominees here.
- Bettors at Polymarket now consider every Trump nominee close to a 100% implied probability of confirmation.
