CANADA: Trudeau Dismisses '51st State' Comments As LPC Climbs In Polls
Feb-12 16:16
The latest opinion polling from Léger shows a stark turnaround in support for the governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), which has seen its polling scores rise significantly in recent weeks amid the resignation of PM Justin Trudeau and the aggressive rhetoric towards the country from US President Donald Trump. The PM has again addressed Trump's comments about the potential annexation of Canada and the country becoming the '51st state' of the US, saying conversations about the idea are " nonstarter" and that "It's never going to happen."
- Trump's comments continue to spur a consumer backlash in Canada, with reports of boycotts of US-made products and Canadians cancelling visits to the US.
- A 'rally round the flag' effect appears to be bolstering support for the incumbent party, while also eating into that of the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
- Léger,Federal election poll, Fieldwork 7-10 Feb. Conservatives: 40% (-7), Liberals 31% (+10), New Democratic Party: 14% (-3), Bloc Quebecois: 7% (-2), Green Party: 6% (+2). Chgs w/13 Jan
- Same question as above with former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney as LPC leader, returned support levels of: LPC 37%, CPC 37%, NDP 12%.
- Given that Carney is frontrunner to take over the party leadership in March, this could radically alter the outlook ahead of the next federal election due by October at the latest. Political and market assumptions had been for a comfortable CPC majority post-election, but if the current trend continues this may no longer prove the base-case scenario.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, %
Source: Léger, MNI
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EU-RUSSIA: Ten EU Nations Call For Tougher Sanctions On Russian LNG
Jan-13 16:14
Bloomberg reporting that ten European Union nations are, “pushing to toughen sanctions against Russia by introducing further restrictions on natural gas and bolstering the enforcement of a price cap on oil.”
- According to Bloomberg, the group which includes Sweden, Ireland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Finland, the Czech Republic and Romania, “want to prohibit imports of pipeline and liquefied natural gas to the bloc to limit the revenues that the Kremlin uses to finance the war in Ukraine.”
- The group said in a document seen by Bloomberg: “As an end goal, it is necessary to ban the import of Russian gas and LNG at the earliest date possible. An alternative to the full ban could be to gradually reduce the use of Russian gas and LNG as has also already been set out in the RePowerEU Roadmap.”
- The document adds: “In any event, the Russian LNG tanker fleet needs to be subject to targeted sanctions prohibiting docking and maritime services on EU territory.”
- Bloomberg notes that restrictive measures, “require unanimous approval from the EU’s 27 member states, which has become an increasingly difficult hurdle with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban openly skeptical of such steps.”
CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Struggles To Tackle Trump's Economic Force Threat
Jan-13 16:10
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last Monday said he will resign March 24 to allow for a Liberal leadership race, also hanging on to deal with Donald Trump's threats of a 25% tariff and use of "economic force" after taking office Jan. 20.
- Trudeau Thursday was in Washington for Jimmy Carter's funeral but appeared to have no meetings with lawmakers or the President-elect. He called a press conference late that day but took no questions, and scheduled no public events Friday or today.
- Trudeau suspended Parliamentary business until his resignation, short-circuiting opposition parties who intended to force a snap election when the legislature had been due to open Jan. 27.
- Leadership vote is March 9. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Anita Anand aren't running while former minister Chrystia Freeland and former BOC/BOE Governor Mark Carney are expected to compete. Other potential candidates include industry minister Francois-Phillipe Champagne and resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson.
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives likely to win majority government if election were held now.
- Sample headlines: The great pretender: Looking back at Trudeau, we see our initial judgment of him when he first entered politics was correct (Globe and Mail); Trudeau’s Long Premiership Was Hollow at the Core (Foreign Policy Magazine); PM Trudeau says he thinks Trump is using talk of Canada becoming 51st state to distract from tariff impact (CTV News).
PIPELINE: $1.5B CBA 5Y SOFR Launched
Jan-13 15:36
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
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