TARIFFS: Trump Announces 10% Minimum Tariffs, 34% on China, 20% EU

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6309 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6245 @ 16:36 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.6193 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD traded lower last week. The impulsive sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. Price is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171, the Feb 4 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and suggest scope for a test of the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6309, the 50-day EMA.   

Large SOFR and Treasury option volumes carried over from overnight, flow leaning towards downside puts - some targeting over 50bp in rate hikes by year end - fading the move higher in underlying futures. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gained some traction vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -1.8bp (-1.4bp), May'25 at -10.2bp (-7.9bp), Jun'25 at -26.0bp (-22.7bp), Jul'25 at -35.3bp (-32.4bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • over 42,700 SFRZ5 95.12/95.62/96.12 put flys, 15-16.0 ref 96.285
  • +25,000 0QM5/0QU5 97.50 call spds, 4.0-4.25
  • +6,000 SFRZ5 95.75/96.00 put spds, 9.75 ref 96.275
  • +2,500 SFRM5 96.00 calls, 11.5 vs. 95.92/0.42%
  • -40,000 0QM5 96.37/97.00 call spds 16.0 to 15.0 over 0QM 95.37/95.62 put spds
  • +6,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.75 call spds, 14.5
  • 2,000 0QM5/2QM5 96.75/97.75 call spd spd
  • Block, 10,000 SFRH5 95.68/95.75 2x1 put spds 3.0 ref 95.7025
  • 3,000 SFRH5 95.62 puts vs. 95.81/95.87 call spds
  • 1,900 0QZ5 93.75/94.37/95.00 put flys ref 96.39
  • 6,500 SFRH5 95.68/95.75 call spds ref 95.7025
  • 10,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.68 put spds ref 95.925
  • Block/screen, 4,000 SFRJ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 broken put condors
  • Block, 18,966 SFRJ5 96.12/96.31/96.56/96.75 call condors, 1.25
• Treasury Options:
  • +10,000 TYK5 109 puts, 20
  • over +75,000 TYJ5 107/108 put spds, 1 vs. 111-07.5/0.02%
  • Block, -22,000 TYJ5 112 calls, 19 vs. +25,000 TYJ5 112 calls, 4 and +7,500 TYJ5 109 puts, 7 vs. +2,200 TYM5 110-30
  • 2,500 TYK5 109/111 strangles
  • 2,000 FVK5 109/110 call spds ref 107-23.75
  • 10,000 Wednesday wkly 10Y 110.75 put vs. wk2 TY 111 calls, 24 net/wk2 over
  • over +45,600 TYK5 112 calls, mostly 43
  • over 9,900 TYJ5 109 puts, 7 last
  • 1,500 TYK5 112/114 call spds 29 ref 110-31
  • 2,500 Wednesday Wkly 10Y 112/112.25 call spds ref 110-28.5, exp 3/5
  • +2,500 TYJ5 109/109.5/110.5 broken put fly, 13

• RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13       
• RES 2: 159.65 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 158.47 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 157.64 @ 16:29 GMT Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 155.93/154.80 Intraday low Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 152.72 1.00 proj of the Jan 24 - Feb 10 - 13 price swing 

Monday’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a potential developing reversal. The cross has traded above the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 159.65. Note that a major support at 154.42, the Dec 14 2023 low, remains intact. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bear theme.