US: Trump Confirms Changes To Inauguration Day Schedule
US President-elect Donald Trump has confirmed changes to the official schedule of his January 20 inauguration on his Truth Social account. Due to the extreme cold forecast for the Washington D.C. area on Monday, several key events on the day's agenda are to be moved inside. See: CNN-Trump Inauguration To Be Moved Indoors Due To Freezing Temperatures
- Trump: "I have ordered the Inauguration Address, in addition to prayers and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States Capitol Rotunda... The various Dignitaries and Guests will be brought into the Capitol."
- Trump: "We will open Capital One Arena on Monday for LIVE viewing of this Historic event, and to host the Presidential Parade. I will join the crowd at Capital One, after my Swearing In."
- Trump: "All other events will remain the same, including the Victory Rally at Capital One Arena, on Sunday at 3 P.M. (Doors open at 1 P.M.—Please arrive early!), and all three Inaugural Balls on Monday evening."
- As noted in the previous bullet: "Moving the swearing-in indoors is unlikely to affect the schedule for the inauguration, with the 20th Amendment to the Constitution declaring that the outgoing president's term ends at 1200ET, meaning there will remain a strong effort to get Trump's swearing-in as close to that point as possible, whether indoors or outside."
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CANADA: USDCAD Most Overbought Since 2022
- USDCAD has climbed to a fresh cycle high amidst broad-based USD strength, most recently hitting 1.4338 after what had been a narrow range consolidating yesterday’s clearance of 1.43.
- CAD outperforms other high beta peers owing to this USD strength and oil futures steadily gaining.
- Next resistance is seen at 1.4352 (2.5 proj of Oct 17 – Nov 1 – 6 price swing) whilst support is seen at 1.4232 (Dec 17 low).
- The 14-day RSI of 76.6 is currently at its most overbought since Sep 2022 (comparing with prior closes).
- PM Trudeau didn’t hint at resignation when speaking to a group of Liberal MPs yesterday. That’s seen odds off an election called in what’s left of this year tumble from 50% yesterday to 5% (Polymarket) considering the government is now in recess until Jan 27 after President-elect Trump’s inauguration. An early election still looks easily possible though – Deutsche Bank for instance see an election in 1Q25 as their base case.
- ING estimate CAD sees a risk premium worth “approximately 2% at current USD/CAD levels (1.43). That is the excess USD/CAD appreciation that is not justified by market factors like rates, equities or commodities, but related to an additional bearish force acting on CAD – in this case, tariff risk. Based on the latest swap rate-FX correlation, a further 25bp widening in the USD:CAD two-year swap differential is worth around three big figures higher in USD/CAD. From current levels, that would propel USD/CAD above 1.45, and a 50bp swap-gap rewidening would send it close to 1.50. At this stage, we definitely cannot exclude a move to 1.50 in the coming months if that Fed-BoC policy differential widens further, especially in a fully-fledged US-Canada trade war scenario.”
Instant Answers for December FOMC Statement and SEP
The Instant Answers questions that we have selected for the December FOMC statement and SEP are as follows - answers to be released immediately after scheduled 1400ET / 1900UK release:
- Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum
- Number of dissenters on size of rate move
- Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025
- Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2026
- Median Longer Run Projection of Fed Funds Rate
- Number of 2025 dots < 3.625%
- Number of 2025 dots > 3.625%
- ON RRP Offer Rate
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 112-02 Low Oct 14
- RES 3: 111-24 38.2% retrace of the Sep 11 - Nov 15 bear leg
- RES 2: 111-04+/111-20+ 50-day EMA / High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 110-17+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-25+ @ 16:52 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 109-17 Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: 109-02+ Low Nov 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 108-28 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bearish short-term theme in Treasury futures remains intact despite yesterday’s bounce. 109-22, 76.4% of the Nov 15 - Dec 6 upleg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose 109-02+, the Nov 15 low and key support. It is still possible that the latest pullback is a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 110-17+, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early bullish development.
