US-RUSSIA: Trump Considering 'Large Scale' Banking Sanctions & Tariffs On Russia
US President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social: "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely “pounding” Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!" Given the massive reduction in links between the US and Russian economies since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it remains to be seen how effective threats regarding tariffs and sanctions will be.
- Trump's comments come ahead of meetings set to take place next week in Saudi Arabia between US and Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will be in Saudi but not participating in the talks, has said that he is hoping for a 'meaningful meeting'. Following the disastrous Oval Office meeting between Zelenskyy, Trump and US VP JD Vance last week, US Middle East Envoy Steven Witkoff said "Hopefully, we get things back on track with the Ukrainians, and everything resumes,"
- In the wake of the US pausing its aid supply to Ukraine and cutting off intelligence cooperation - reportedly including crucial access to Maxar satellite imagery - Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukrainian power and energy infrastructure on the 6/7 March.
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EQUITIES: US Cash opening calls
SPX: 6,030.2 (-0.1%); DJIA: 44,609 (+0.1%/+53pts); NDX: 21,453.8 (-0.5%).
STIR: Light Hawkish Reaction In Euribor Futures To Lane Speech
Light hawkish reaction in Euribor futures to Chief Economist Lane’s prepared remarks, seemingly on initial headlines covering upside inflation risks.
- Futures were already moving a little lower ahead of the speech’s release.
- ERZ5 is +0.5 ticks at 98.080, down from 98.100 around ~30 minutes ago.
- Overall, Lane’s comments were very much in line with President Lagarde’s press conference last Thursday. He also already referenced the need for policy rates to track a “middle path” earlier this month (Jan 13).
- ECB-dated OIS price ~87bps of easing through year-end, down from ~89bps before the speech was released.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.418 | -24.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.226 | -44.1 |
| Jun-25 | 2.037 | -63.0 |
| Jul-25 | 1.952 | -71.5 |
| Sep-25 | 1.855 | -81.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.834 | -83.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.792 | -87.5 |
| Feb-26 | 1.793 | -87.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 30Y Ultra-Bond Buy
- +2,000 WNH5 120-29, buy through 120-27 post time offer at 0910:43ET, DV01 $380,000. The 30Y Ultra contract trades 121-03 last (+1-12).
