US: Trump Delivers Extended Press Conference At Cabinet Meeting

Feb-26 17:34

A flurry of comments from US President Donald Trump hitting wires as he speaks with the press at a Cabinet meeting at the White House. 

  • Elon Musk, opening the meeting, says he will send another email to federal workers seeking justification for their ongoing employment. Trump endorses Musk's statement saying he's, "not happy about federal workers who did not respond." The comments appear aimed at heading off reports of a rift between the Trump admin and Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
  • Trump says, "will be talking to cabinet secretaries to do their own dirge of federal workers." Echoing a recent memo issued by the White House OMB and Office of Personnel Management, he says staff needs to be reduced because we're "bloated" and "sloppy". See earlier bullet: US: OMB Sets Out Plans For Large-Scale Staff Cuts And Govt Reorganisation - BBG
  • Trump says that on April 2, "tariffs will go on, not all but a lot of them" saying you're going to see "something amazing" and reiterating that his tariff regime is designed to reduce flows of fentanyl and restore "respect" for the US.
  • Trump reiterates he has a "great relationship" with Chinese President Xi Jinping and says he wants US investment in China and Chinese investment in the US. 
  • Trump says he wants his "gold card" for US citizenship to come into effect in "about two weeks".

Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 5Y Auction

Jan-27 17:08
  • Tsy futures remain well bid but off highs ahead of the $70B 5Y note auction (91282CMG3) at 1300ET, WI is currently running at 4.347%, 13.1bp rich to last month's stop.
  • December 5Y auction recap: Tsy futures pared losses (TYH5 trades 108-13 last, -2) after $70B 5Y note auction (91282CMD0) stopped 0.2bp through (second consecutive stop since June): drawing 4.478% high yield vs. 4.480% WI; 2.40x bid-to-cover vs. 2.43x for the prior auction.
  • Peripheral stats showed indirect take-up climbed to 67.27% vs. 64.12% prior, directs at 20.26% vs. 24.58% prior (highest since Jul 2014), primary dealer take-up 12.47% vs. 11.30% prior.
     

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Meets The 50-Day EMA

Jan-27 17:03
  • RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
  • RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg.    
  • RES 2: 109-31   High Dec 18  
  • RES 1: 109-12+ 50-day EMA 
  • PRICE:‌‌ 109-02+ @ 17:01 GMT Jan 27
  • SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger    
  • SUP 2: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support  
  • SUP 3: 107-00   Round number support
  • SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures is down, however a bullish short-term cycle highlights an ongoing corrective phase and the contract is trading higher today. Attention is on 109-12+, the 50-day EMA - a level tested on Monday. A clear break of this EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. This would open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low. 

CANADA: Ford Set To Officially Request Early Ontario Election 28 Jan

Jan-27 17:00

Doug Ford, premier of Canada’s most populous and richest province, Ontario, is set to meet with the provincial lieutenant governor tomorrow (28 Jan) to request a dissolution of the legislative assembly and call an election for 27 February. Ford, from the centre-right Progressive Conservatives (PC), is seeking a third term in office and opinion polls show the PC’s on course to retain a majority. 

  • Ford argues a renewed mandate is required to present a strong stance against the threat of US tariffs on Ontario’s export-reliant industries. Speaking last week as he announced his intention to call an early election, Ford said With a strong mandate, we will be able to fight with Donald Trump to make sure we stop the tariffs,”. It remains to be seen what power the Ontario premier has in any tariff talks between Ottawa and Washington.
  • Critics have accused Ford of political opportunism and risking a lack of focus on the threat of tariffs during the election campaign.
  • A strong result for the PCs in Ontario's election could point towards the main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) being in a good position to win a majority in any snap federal election. The governing Liberals choose their new party leader in March, but there is no guarantee that PM Justin Trudeau's successor will be able to avoid a swift confidence vote in the Commons.