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AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6335 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6279 @ 14:42 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6100. Resistance at 0.6229, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 0.6335, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: Short Cover Most Prominent In SONIA Futures On Friday
OI data suggests that net short cover dominated in most SONIA futures on Friday, with only limited pockets of net long setting seen through the blues.
- GBP STIRs comfortably off the hawkish extremes seen in the early part of last week, with U.S. CPI adding to the dovish momentum stemming from UK CPI and economic activity data.
| 17-Jan-25 | 16-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFIZ4 | 314,954 | 313,406 | +1,548 | Whites | -14,596 |
SFIH5 | 289,383 | 293,521 | -4,138 | Reds | -18,657 |
SFIM5 | 316,763 | 325,333 | -8,570 | Greens | -1,490 |
SFIU5 | 268,757 | 272,193 | -3,436 | Blues | -21 |
SFIZ5 | 370,149 | 387,836 | -17,687 |
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|
SFIH6 | 209,166 | 210,540 | -1,374 |
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SFIM6 | 172,866 | 171,827 | +1,039 |
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SFIU6 | 112,972 | 113,607 | -635 |
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SFIZ6 | 128,418 | 130,606 | -2,188 |
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SFIH7 | 72,551 | 72,743 | -192 |
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SFIM7 | 62,303 | 61,904 | +399 |
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SFIU7 | 73,435 | 72,944 | +491 |
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SFIZ7 | 63,324 | 64,138 | -814 |
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SFIH8 | 41,516 | 40,828 | +688 |
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SFIM8 | 22,064 | 21,955 | +109 |
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SFIU8 | 20,142 | 20,146 | -4 |
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EFSF ISSUANCE: New 3-year / new 10-year: Priced
New long 3-year:
- Reoffer: 99.833 to yield 2.553%
- Spread set earlier at MS+19bp (guidance was MS + 21 bps area)
- Size: E3bln (MNI expected E3-5bln)
- Books closed in excess of E27bln (inc E1.5bln JLM interest)
- HR: 107% vs 2.20% Apr-28 Bobl
- Maturity: 27 July 2028
- Coupon: 2.50%, short first
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAR0
New 10-year:
- Reoffer: 98.992 to yield 2.993%
- Spread set earlier at MS+50bp (guidance wasMS + 53 bps area
- Size: E4bln (MNI expected E3-5bln)
- Books in excess of E33bln (inc E1.5bln JLM interest)
- HR 97% vs 2.50% Feb-35 Bund
- Maturity: 29 January 2035
- Coupon: 2.875%, long first
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAS8
For both:
- Total size: E7bln (MNI expected E7-8bln)
- Settlement: 27 January 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BARCLAYS / BNP / JPM (DM/B&D)
- Timing: Hedge deadline 13:25GMT / 14:25CET. Pricing to follow
From market source
