US: Trump Indictment Has Little Impact On Betting Market Odds For 2024
Mar-31 09:31
The indictment of former President Donald Trump by a grand jury in New York on 30 March has had little-to-no impact on the political betting markets' implied probability of his chances of regaining the presidency in the 2024 election. According to data from Smarkets, Trump's implied probability of winning in 2024 actually increased marginally in the wake of his indictment, going from 24.4% to 25.3%. Meanwhile, Predictit data showed his implied probability of winning falling from 29% to 28% at the time of writing.
- The indictment will not damage Trump's popularity among his base, which remains one of the most committed political forces in modern US politics. However, it does raise the prospect of the wider GOP re-assessing Trump's suitability to run for office once again. At present only committed opponents to Trump within the Republican party have said the indictment must mean his withdrawal from the race.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MNI: UK FINAL FEB MANUF. PMI 49.3 (FLASH 49.2); JAN 47.0
Mar-01 09:30
- MNI: UK FINAL FEB MANUF. PMI 49.3 (FLASH 49.2); JAN 47.0
MNI: UK BOE FEB MORTGAGE APPROVALS 39,637
Mar-01 09:30
- MNI: UK BOE FEB MORTGAGE APPROVALS 39,637
- UK BOE FEB SECURED LENDING GBP2.54 BLN
- UK BOE FEB CONSUMER CREDIT GBP1.6 BLN
MNI: UK FEB M4 MONEY SUPPLY +1.3% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y
Mar-01 09:30
- MNI: UK FEB M4 MONEY SUPPLY +1.3% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y
