OIL: TRUMP SIGNS COMMONWEATH LNG EXPORT LICENSE: BBG

• Excerpt from the latest Beige Bookt: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Construction activity decreased overall, with several Districts indicating that high costs for materials and financing were weighing on growth."
• On Labor Markets: "Employment ticked up on balance, with six Districts reporting a slight increase and six reporting no change. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth."
• On Prices: "Prices increased modestly overall, with growth rates ranging from flat to moderate."

A new annual survey from the Conference Board has found that global CEOs are increasingly concerned about trade wars and a decoupling of China from international trade systems. 

• The 2025 survey shows that, according to at least 500 global CEOs, business leaders report their primary concern is intensified trade wars, brought into focus by hardline rhetoric ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's return to office.
• The survey shows that the fourth highest concern of the 2024 survey - the risk of military confrontation between Russia and NATO - has fallen out of the top 10 concerns.
• The survey also shows that US national debt and deficits is the 5th highest concern, likely an acknowledgement that an ideologically fractured Republican Congress must raise the US federal debt ceiling by summer.
• Axios notes on the survey: "Geopolitical worries don't seem to have dampened broader economic optimism. Last year, 55% of U.S. CEOs said the risk of an economic downturn or recession would be a high-impact issue last year. This year, that fell to less than 40%."

Figure 1: Top Geopolitical Risks for 2025, According to Global CEOs

Source: Conference Board, Axios

RRP usage declines to $119.977B this afternoon from $160.219B on Tuesday. Compares to $98.356B on Friday, December 20 - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties retreats to 39 from 59.