US-JAPAN: Trump To Attend Meeting w/Japan's Chief Trade Negotiator

• Fed Funds implied rates sit between unchanged to 1bp higher from Friday’s close for 2025 meetings, aided by oil futures sitting 1% higher.
• It leaves the rate path at the hawkish end of the past two weeks, with 64bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs briefly almost 90bp earlier last week, but it’s still dovish compared to the 50bp pencilled in back in the December SEP.
• We expect this 50bp of cuts to be kept with the new SEP due Wednesday – see the MNI Fed Preview here. The FOMC of course remains in media blackout in the interim.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp for Wed, 8bp May, 23bp Jun, 32bp Jul and 64bp Dec.
• Today sees retail sales for February headline the US docket, watched to see the extent of a bounce from a particularly weak January report. 

OI data points to net short setting across most contracts on Friday, with the only exception coming via net long cover in TU.

• Net short setting was prominent across FV, TY & UXY futures.