US TSYS: Tsys Yields Rise Following Trump Comments, Focus Turns To CPI Later

ACGBs (YM -15.0 & XM -10.0) are sharply weaker and hovering near Sydney session cheaps.

• Outside of the previously outlined MI Inflation Index and ANZ-Indeed job advertisements, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
• There have been no cash dealings in US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a holiday. TYH5 is, however, weaker at 107-07+, -0-05 from NY closing levels. This week, CPI and PPI inflation measures are on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The scheduled Fed speaker docket is muted with the Fed Blackout on Friday.
• Cash ACGBs are 10-14bps cheaper, led by the short end.
• Swap rates are 9-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
• The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -5 to -15.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-16bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is now less than fully priced for April (97%), with the probability of a February cut at 65% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer Confidence data.
• AOFM Bond issuance will resume this week, with A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond to be sold on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond to be sold on Friday. 

• Not surprisingly it has been a quiet session for Tsys with cash trading closed with Japan out. Short-end tsys futures have broken below Friday's lows, however ranges have remained tight. TU has traded sideways since this morning, last -00⅞ at 102-15+, while TY is -04+ at 107-08.
• There was a decent flattening across curves on Friday, with the 2s10s dropping 4.5bps to 38bps, while the 5s30s & 2s30s both fell about 10bps. The 10yr closed at 4.759%, breaking above the 2024 highs, with sights now on the 2023 highs of 5.01%.
• Former Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles dismissed concerns over the Fed's independence under Trump, emphasizing its structural resilience to political pressure. He noted that tariffs are unlikely to drive inflation significantly and predicted limited labor market impacts from potential deportations. With US inflation progress stalling and a resilient labor market, the markets are now expect just one Fed rate cut in 2025 and not until October/December meetings.
• Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have cooled slightly throughout the session vs. Friday morning levels*: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-1.7bp), Mar'25 -5.1bp (-10.1bp), May'25 -9.2bp (-15.9bp), Jun'25 -16.9bp (-25.6bp), Jul'25 -18.7bp (25.5bp).
• The calendar is light on today, with just NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations & Federal Budget Balance, focus will turn to PPI & CPI later in the week.

After getting close to $2700 on Friday, gold sits slightly lower in the first part of Monday trade. We were last sub $2690, off modestly versus end NY levels from Friday. Still, we remain very much in buy the dip mode, with the firmer US yield/USD backdrop post NFP on Friday not upsetting the recent uptrend in bullion. Last week's +1.88% gain was the best since late Nov last year. 

• Working in gold's favor has been more risk aversion emanating from equity markets. US futures continue to track lower in Monday trade so far, down 0.44% for Eminis and 0.60% for Nasdaq futures. The US VIX index tested above 20% on Friday as well.
• A clean break above $2700 could see mid Dec 2024 highs above $2726 targeted.