TTF extends the trend down to the lowest since Dec. 20 as warm temperatures forecast for March ease ...
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Recent price action in USDCAD highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels also represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition remains bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4248, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.
This morning’s rally in global core FI (see earlier posts for colour) has spilled over into EUR STIRs, with year-end ECB implied rates 3bps below Friday’s close. That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing 91bps of easing through December, with 75bps of cuts priced through the first half of this year.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.6 |
Mar-25 | 2.455 | -46.6 |
Apr-25 | 2.323 | -59.8 |
Jun-25 | 2.174 | -74.7 |
Jul-25 | 2.124 | -79.7 |
Sep-25 | 2.058 | -86.3 |
Oct-25 | 2.039 | -88.3 |
Dec-25 | 2.009 | -91.3 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair traded higher last week and in the process pierced resistance at 0.6326, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and open 0.6384, the Dec 13 high. The key support and bear trigger has been defined at 0.6131, the Jan 13 low.