NATGAS: TTF Pulls Back After Rally to €54.8/MWh
TTF front month is back near previous close levels after an initial rally to the highest since Oct. 2023 at €54.8/MWh as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs. US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast near normal in the coming days although could dip below normal towards the weekend and into next week. A slight pick up in wind generation from the current low levels is expected.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are still slightly below normal today nominated at 326.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions totalling 10.85mcm/d this week until Feb. 9.
- European gas storage has fallen to 53.11% full on Feb. 1, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 60.1%. Net withdrawal rates increased late last week back to near normal levels for the time of year.
- European LNG sendout has risen back up to 374mcm/d on Feb. 1 compared to an average of 351mcm/d over the previous week and around 360mcm/d this time last year.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 60.9mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 455k on Jan. 31.
- TTF MAR 25 down 0.4% at 53.05€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 52.49€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 down 0.1% at 46.75€/MWh
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
