NATGAS: TTF Rebounds Amid Ongoing Summer Storage Refill Concern
TTF has rebounded from a low of €46.82/MWh yesterday on reports that the EU will not seek to relax gas storage targets until after 2025 in its upcoming Clean Industrial Deal to offset bearish pressure from US-Russia talks on peace in Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s Energy Minister discussed the country’s need for gas imports with an EU representative and was seeking a diversification of supply routes to Ukraine and Slovakia, Reuters reports.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are rising above normal at the end of this week but are expected to drift back to near normal from mid next week.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are again relatively unchanged at 329.7mcm/d with no planned field or plant outages this week.
- European gas storage has fallen to 43.37% full on Feb. 17, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 53.2% with withdrawal rates rising to the highest since Jan. 22.
- European LNG sendout was 437mcm/d on Feb. 17 and approximately in line with the average seen so far in February.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.76mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF futures aggregate trading volume was 525k on Feb. 18.
- TTF MAR 25 up 1.9% at 50.15€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 50.43€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 up 2.1% at 47.34€/MWh
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Historical bullets
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 91.48/91.69.
EQUITIES: Some attention on the Open
There'll be more focus on European Equities on the Open, and going forward.
Estoxx future (VGH5) continues to trade near Friday's high, Cash Estoxx (SX5E) traded at its highest level in two decades (highest since Sept 2000) on Friday, Bank index (SX7E) was at its highest level since 2015, and the FTSE and Dax traded at a new all time record highs.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.25%, Dax: +0.15%, CAC: +0.25%, FTSE +0.04%, SMI +0.19%.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6302/35 High Jan 6 / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6229/47 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 0.6220 @ 07:53 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest shallow recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance is 0.6229, 20-day EMA (pierced). The 50-day EMA is at 0.6335.
