TURKEY: Turkish Lira Notably Underperforming on Friday
Feb-21 17:00
- Noting an acceleration in the pace of TRY weakness in recent trade, helping USD/TRY (again) touch a new cycle and record high. While equities globally are being sold, TRY seemingly being hit harder than most, rallying to touch 36.4867 (as per Bloomberg pricing).
- No specific headlines or newflow behind the bump in the currency, however it does coincide with the opening of a ~75 point gap with highs in the e-mini S&P - in turn triggered by the stagflationary concerns stemming from the Michigan sentiment and US PMI releases.
- This pick up in USD/TRY, while a notable acceleration of the theme, may not yet be troubling the CBRT/government given nominal exchange rate depreciation can be tolerated in favour of inflation-adjusted FX rates - which Simsek and other ministers remain confident will improve this year, as per their 'real appreciation' strategy.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Another Upside ERM5 Structure
Jan-22 16:58
ERM5 98.00 / 98.125 / 98.25 call fly, bought for 1.25 in 11.5k
- The latest upside ERM5 option structure this week.
- Calls outnumber puts by 4.5 to 1 today.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan23 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jan-22 16:39
- EUR/USD: $1.0295-00(E2.7bln), $1.0400(E1.9bln), $1.0425-40(E2.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y155.00($1.7bln), Y156.00($987mln), Y156.15-20($561mln), Y156.50-60($734mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2500(Gbp713mln), $1.2565(Gbp748mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6200-05(A$1.8bln), $0.6260(A$695mln), $0.6300(A$1.1bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5660-75(N$1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4390-05($1.6bln), C$1.4450($1.1bln)
IRELAND: Martin Still Not Confirmed As PM After Day Of Chaos In Parliament
Jan-22 16:39
The Dáil Eireann has adjourned until tomorrow (23 Jan) after a day of political chaos amid efforts to officially confirm Micheál Martin as taoiseach (PM). The process to appoint Martin and then approve his cabinet of ministers was initially viewed to be a fait accompli after Martin's centrist Fianna Fail agreed to a programme for gov't with the conservative Fine Gael, adding the support of nine independent members (TDs) in a confidence and supply agreement.
- However, efforts by the gov't to have the Regional Independent Group and two other independent TDs sit on the opposition benches despite them being in support of the gov't raised objections from opposition parties arguing the gov't was attempting to eat into the opposition's allotment of speaking time in parliament.
- Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) Verona Murphy had to suspend the session on numerous occasions amid chaos on the chamber floor with opposition parties vocally objecting.
- Machinations within the various independent groups in the Dáil could deny some independent TDs that are part of the Regional Independents speaking time, a major blow to their position in gov't.
- This leaves the caretaker gov't in place since the Nov 2024 election still in power and further delays the new gov'ts ability to begin work on major policy action - most notably the impact of Trump admin policies on Ireland's status as a hub for US multinationals.
