AUSSIE BONDS: Twist-Fattener, RBA Gov Speech Due, Jun-35 Supply Tomorrow
Apr-10 05:15
ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM +9.5) continue to hold a twist-flattening, but pricing has shifted higher versus opening levels.
- Cash US tsys are dealing 2-6bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's extreme volatility.
- "It took a week for the plunge in the stock and bond markets -- along with a sustained campaign by executives, lawmakers, lobbyists and foreign leaders -- to prompt Trump to roll back for 90 days a major element of his sweeping tariff plan. " (per WSJ via BBG see link)
- The MI's measure of consumer inflation expectations for April rose 0.6pp to 4.2%.
- Cash ACGBs are 9bps cheaper to 9bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +2bps.
- Swap rates are 7bps higher to 9bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip has bear-flattened, with pricing -5 to -19.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 13-21bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 35% probability, with a cumulative 120bps of easing priced by year-end.
- The local calendar will see later today a speech from RBA Governor Bullock (2000 AEST). The next release will be the RBA Minutes of the April Meeting on Tuesday.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$600mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond tomorrow.
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US TSYS: Cash Bonds Richer But Off Bests As Risk Reverses Higher
Mar-11 05:07
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is currently at 111-19+, 0-09 from closing levels, after trading as high as 111-25 early on equity market weakness.
- Block Buy: +4,050 of TYM5 at 111-17+, post-time 04:08:07 GMT. The contract has traded higher since.
- Cash US tsys are 2-4bps richer, with a flattening bias after yesterday’s robust bull-steepener. The US 10-year is currently 3.8bps lower at 4.173%, after hitting a low of 4.15% earlier.
- Today’s key release is January JOLTS job openings, with February CPI on Wednesday.
GOLD: Gold Rises on Volatility.
Mar-11 05:02
- Opening at US$2,888.71Gold jumped in the afternoon as equity volatility drove markets in the region.
- Reaching $2,900.50 briefly, gold then backed off to be at $2,897.76
- Gold is usually highly correlated to negative market sentiment and displays it’s ‘safe-haven’ status yet overnight, gold’s drivers appear mixed.
- With global market volatility elevated due to the implementation of tariffs and their potential impact on the US and Global economies, equity markets are down and bond yields rallying gold resumed its year long rally today and with expectations that this volatility is likely to continue, it is an environment where gold usually does well.
- The overnight move has moved back above the 20-day EMA of $2,892.24.
- CFTC data shows that money managers have cut their bullish gold bets to the least in nine weeks, a sign that profit taking is the key driver of the downward pressure on prices.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: China Advisor On Support Property Company Consolidations
Mar-11 04:59
A senior China advisor eyes official support for property company consolidations. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
