SOUTH AFRICA: Two MPC Members Voted for Unchanged Rates
Jan-30 13:12
Highlights from the policy statement:
- "Four members preferred this action, while two supported an unchanged stance."
- "Inflation is likely to remain in the bottom half of our target range through the first half of this year. But headline inflation should revert to around 4.5% thereafter, aided by core inflation which remains at or below the midpoint over the forecast horizon."
- "In the near term, inflation appears well contained. However, the medium-term outlook is more uncertain than usual, with material risks from the external environment."
- "The committee ultimately agreed that it was possible to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness, making the stance somewhat more neutral. However, all members were concerned about the uncertain global outlook."
See the full release here.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Dec-31 13:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.37% (-0.09), volume: $2.290T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $844B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $798B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
