UK DATA: UK GfK Highest Since Dec-21
May-23 23:01
UK GfK Consumer Confidence rose slightly more than expected by 2 points to -17 (vs -18 consensus, -19 prior) in May, and rose 10 points on a year-on-year basis - the highest level seen since December 2021.
- 4 of 5 subcomponents improved. In particular the 'Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months' component rose 5 points to 7 points (vs -8 in May 2023), the 'General Economic Situation over next 12 months' component rose 4 points to -17 making it 13 points higher than May 2023 levels, although it remains negative.
- Meanwhile the 'Major Purchase index' component fell by 1 point to -26 - 2 points lower than the May 2023 level.
- While again, the overall index remains negative, 4 of 5 subcomponents improved since May last year.
- The chart below shows, that although the progress is slowing, as inflation continues to soften consumer confidence continues to rise. The Client Strategy Director says "with the latest drop in headline inflation and the prospect of interest rate cuts in due course, the trend is certainly positive... All in all, consumers are clearly sensing that conditions are improving. This good result anticipates further growth in confidence in the months to come."
- May's survey was conducted among a sample of 2,009 individuals from May 1st to May 15th.
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UK DATA: Brightmine (XpertHR): Pay Deals Fall to 4.8%; Expected 5% for 2024 Overall
Apr-23 23:01
- Brightmine (previously XpertHR) median basic pay awards in the 3 months to the end of March 2024 fell to +4.8% (vs a revised +5.0% in the prior rolling quarter - originally +4.8% Y/Y 3 month average) - the lowest level since September 2022.
- On top of the normal monthly rolling quarter data, Brightmine's preview of April pay deals finds that the median rises marginally to 5%. The Brightmine senior content manager states with the April settlements coming in "this cements our view that pay awards will centre on the 5% mark over at least the first half of 2024."
- Both this and the quarterly rolling data point to a reduction in wage growth relative to last year, although not as meaningful a slowdown as the MPC would have liked. Note that last week's official ONS wage data fell less than expected.
- Data collected between 1 January and 31 March 2024, based on a total of 142 pay settlements, representing 398,976 employees.
MNI: UK JAN-MAR MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +4.8% :XpertHR/Brightmine
Apr-23 23:01
- MNI: UK JAN-MAR MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +4.8% :XpertHR/Brightmine
OIL: Crude Rebounds As US$ Weakens On Softer PMI Data
Apr-23 22:56
Oil prices rose strongly on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected US PMI data increased speculation of a rate cut as attention moves away from geopolitics. This week’s other US data, including Q1 GDP and March core PCE prices, will be watched closely to ascertain Fed timing. The USD index is 0.4% lower, which also supported crude.
- WTI rose 1.8% on Tuesday to $83.40/bbl to be up 1.2% in April. It has started today around this level. The benchmark fell to a low of $80.88, close to support at $80.75 (50-day EMA), before rebounding to a high of $83.43. Initial resistance and bull trigger is at $86.97.
- Brent fell to $86.03/bbl before rising to a high of $88.51. It finished up 1.6% to $88.42. The recent trend downward highlights the start of a corrective cycle. Initial support is at $85.55, 50-day EMA with resistance and bull trigger at $92.18.
- After a number of large weekly inventory drops, Bloomberg is reporting that US crude stocks fell 3.23mn last week according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline continued to fall at -595k but distillate rose 724k. The official EIA data is release later today.
